tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8235732629214489792024-03-05T01:10:03.949-05:0014 PointsA student-run public policy blog of the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University.schaskelhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03806440580470311752noreply@blogger.comBlogger70125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-823573262921448979.post-75269741250589167902012-04-09T23:08:00.028-04:002012-04-12T19:31:40.617-04:00Two Weeks of Victory for Democracy in Senegal! (Yes, Senegal got a new President.)<div style="text-align: left;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 18px;color:#333333;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">By Jennifer Browning, MPA 2013</span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 18px;color:#333333;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhe3qcmYdu7aM0C-Qb6rW7UrFyWJC3FQv8HDl9htWnkPopdq68lXYSaEDjBhnp_qeZBGP3ljuphlCMhO3IT-Asi6dqbJyA8mQskjFU8IuOfVmfugPCVCWvFazNqk8q8iiX7O_Lhw1h2xd0r/s1600/pic1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhe3qcmYdu7aM0C-Qb6rW7UrFyWJC3FQv8HDl9htWnkPopdq68lXYSaEDjBhnp_qeZBGP3ljuphlCMhO3IT-Asi6dqbJyA8mQskjFU8IuOfVmfugPCVCWvFazNqk8q8iiX7O_Lhw1h2xd0r/s400/pic1.png" width="400" /></a></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" ;font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:small;">Poster of President-Elect Macky Sall as people celebrate his victory in Dakar. Benno Bokk Yaakaar means “People United with Hope” in Wolof.</span></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">(This is a follow-up to my earlier post I wrote before the elections, on February 26. You can read it <a href="http://wws14points.blogspot.com/2012/02/will-senegal-get-new-president-analysis.html">here</a>.) </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Senegal has had plenty to celebrate in the past two weeks. The Senegalese elected a new President, Macky Sall; the former President Abdoulaye Wade peacefully stepped down and Sall was inaugurated on April 2; and Senegal celebrated its 52<sup>nd</sup> Independence Day two days later on April 4. Macky Sall’s election is a victory for the youth and opposition protestors who had mobilized for weeks against a questionable third term bid by President Abdoulaye Wade. With a troubling coup in Mali only a few days before (see my classmate William Vu's post on 14 Points Blog on the coup in Mali <a href="http://wws14points.blogspot.com/2012/04/swift-and-proper-action-vital-to-malis.html">here</a>), Senegal once again demonstrated that it is the strong, stable democratic leader of the region. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">However, Sall’s victory seemed far from assured before the first round of elections on February 26, 2012. The opposition was sharply divided, so people were unsure about which candidate would finish in the top two with Wade. There was a Princeton connection: opposition candidate Idrissa Seck spent a year at Princeton University as a visiting student. When President Wade failed to win a majority and the election headed into a two-candidate run off, the opposition was able to unite around Macky Sall. Sall won the run off with 68.5% of the vote.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Celebrations erupted around Senegal. This election really does belong to the young generation in Senegal. Young people led in many cases by smart and unapologetically critical rappers and followed by more seasoned opposition leaders had been rallying for almost a year to prevent President Wade from a third term. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This video gives a taste of Senegal’s unique sabar dancing, election euphoria style!</span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><object class="BLOGGER-youtube-video" classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0" height="266" src="http://1.gvt0.com/vi/Ch9UoFdL5ak/0.jpg" width="320"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/Ch9UoFdL5ak&fs=1&source=uds"><param name="bgcolor" value="#FFFFFF"><embed width="320" height="266" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/Ch9UoFdL5ak&fs=1&source=uds" type="application/x-shockwave-flash"></embed></object></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The voting also took place in the sizeable Senegalese diaspora. In Harlem and throughout the U.S., about 10,000 Senegalese people registered to vote. At a conference before the election, Columbia University Professor and head of the U.S. DECENA (Overseas Delegation of the Autonomous National Electoral Committee- <a href="http://www.dakaronline.net/APS-Souleymane-Bachir-Diagne-nomme-president-de-la-DECENA-des-Etats-Unis_a10437.html">Article in French on Diagne's Appointment</a>) Souleymane Bachir Diagne explained that the Senegalese diaspora in the U.S. is much larger than 10,000. However, DECENA had challenges convincing many Senegalese immigrants, especially those who are undocumented, to sign up to vote. Apparently immigrants were worried that they could get into trouble with U.S. immigration authorities by voting. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Another problem voters faced is that while Senegal allows for absentee voting, would-be voters must declare the location where they will vote in advance, which can pose problems if they are not sure where they will be. However, despite these challenges, many Senegalese people did vote in Harlem, and throughout the U.S.<o:p></o:p></span></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNimQ8_diMlbaHlVwaMxzvsDCkrhC-Yih87030jqwXjejsavg-HBuz0BiPo0xcCQGJlakb9H0l1KtIf0M75JOTg6uOcMq4sI9VzI3DTmyp3cy08hjU0qTc_5QEEnwztXQ9TwLba5k9ziSO/s1600/pic2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNimQ8_diMlbaHlVwaMxzvsDCkrhC-Yih87030jqwXjejsavg-HBuz0BiPo0xcCQGJlakb9H0l1KtIf0M75JOTg6uOcMq4sI9VzI3DTmyp3cy08hjU0qTc_5QEEnwztXQ9TwLba5k9ziSO/s320/pic2.png" width="320" /></a></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" ;font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:small;">New York City had several polling stations- this is Wadleigh Middle School in Harlem.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" ;font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:small;"><o:p> </o:p> </span></div></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I visited the election polling station at Wadleigh Middle School in Harlem during the first round. Along with DECENA staff, candidate representatives were present to observe the election and speak with interested voters. People presented their national ID and voter ID cards and then voted in one of the several first floor rooms. Professor Diagne recognized that requiring two IDs seems overly cumbersome and hopefully will change. I knew one Senegalese friend who did not vote because while he had his national ID card, he had misplaced his voter ID card.<o:p></o:p></span></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVx8I3Q9CmjNeyNYM4PEa-pkuNC5Oqlz9IaDVTHmsiQeWskBOBTy22UqfKlmfd8iZpwi2vVmHMT4IuXn7aAQx_FD75MH8MIQ7376lQOm7ueh93JQVg3kVo4Sz2KdHbkEuThoSe_Nh7mCCi/s1600/pic3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVx8I3Q9CmjNeyNYM4PEa-pkuNC5Oqlz9IaDVTHmsiQeWskBOBTy22UqfKlmfd8iZpwi2vVmHMT4IuXn7aAQx_FD75MH8MIQ7376lQOm7ueh93JQVg3kVo4Sz2KdHbkEuThoSe_Nh7mCCi/s320/pic3.png" width="320" /></a></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" ;font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:small;">Voting Room at Wadleigh Secondary School in Harlem after a long day. The candidates are featured on cards with their pictures during the first round. In the run-off election, only President Wade, 2<sup>nd</sup> from left and Macky Sall, 4<sup>th</sup> from left remained. The magenta dye was used to mark people who had voted and reduce risk of election fraud.</span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQJ4VG-nO0FhnbG06ssRsDsPieAbJhZr85RioCaNLY0eVEXNa4TAeYi5mKOOxJF1esS9gcFCO6iKNdzJSmKwklq-pkLrpdIi1cDbRp7RsymNDBA0rt2aO7HByaMt2jR_Ql10D6wAbM1Xo2/s1600/pic4.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQJ4VG-nO0FhnbG06ssRsDsPieAbJhZr85RioCaNLY0eVEXNa4TAeYi5mKOOxJF1esS9gcFCO6iKNdzJSmKwklq-pkLrpdIi1cDbRp7RsymNDBA0rt2aO7HByaMt2jR_Ql10D6wAbM1Xo2/s320/pic4.png" width="240" /></a></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" ;font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:small;">A Senegalese voter in Harlem shows his national ID and voter registration ID; both are necessary to vote. His dyed red fingertip marks that he voted.</span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWcZW7-JSp2hW1zN8TKmHu5eaxbdYyaVkNsbo6CxLRqwWAuGj2OfMljHrWSrma1dWstVErU9Rm48HWsTh9V8nU4VryroUhjKTbFE4qbgKdnCpmgVg6a4paw8Jn4J5Z0sMYnGtJbygc30Gu/s1600/pic5.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWcZW7-JSp2hW1zN8TKmHu5eaxbdYyaVkNsbo6CxLRqwWAuGj2OfMljHrWSrma1dWstVErU9Rm48HWsTh9V8nU4VryroUhjKTbFE4qbgKdnCpmgVg6a4paw8Jn4J5Z0sMYnGtJbygc30Gu/s320/pic5.png" width="240" /></a></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" ;font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:small;">List of candidates in the first round of elections on February 26, 2012. Abdoulaye Wade and Macky Sall would win out with 34.8% and 26.6% of the vote, respectively.</span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Voter registration and identification were not solely problems for the diaspora; President Wade’s government had not made it easy for many first time voters to register. Young adults were more likely to support the opposition, and with a very young population, they were an important factor in this election. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> Youssou Ndour’s candidacy was not approved by the Constitutional Court. However, this catapulted him into a position of leadership of the opposition. President Macky Sall named Youssou Ndour his Minister of Culture. What many in the West do not realize is that in addition to being a world music star, Youssou is a very successful businessmen who has re-invested in Senegal, first creating a club where he performs most weekends when in town and then expanding to radio station, television channel, and music studio. While the Senegalese may not have been ready to make him President, they deeply appreciate his dedication to working in Senegal. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWONANduwOvR3hHp0j-CvRiWDRpA_2uis9SCthaljpbqYxJO_saACxOGSQznRResCszvEoIY0wjU6dAuasSAW5FaiW-EqQXG2KIKdd3_m43ZSethw6TV-wwRH8hL3UpgHRV3zwXd4qXm-r/s1600/pic6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWONANduwOvR3hHp0j-CvRiWDRpA_2uis9SCthaljpbqYxJO_saACxOGSQznRResCszvEoIY0wjU6dAuasSAW5FaiW-EqQXG2KIKdd3_m43ZSethw6TV-wwRH8hL3UpgHRV3zwXd4qXm-r/s320/pic6.png" width="320" /></a></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" ;font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:small;">Macky Sall (left) and Youssou Ndour (right) at a public concert on April 3, 2012 in Dakar to celebrate President Sall’s inauguration.</span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Youssou Ndour’s decision to open another media outlet is also indicative of the exploding television outlets in Africa. If people are unsatisfied with the government controlled television coverage, they can simply switch to another channel. This proved very important in Senegal’s elections. In the first major protests against President Wade on June 23, 2011, many television stations actively covered center of events in front of the National Assembly building. However, if viewers had only had access to the RTS (the national television station), they may have believed that instead of the largest protests that their nation had seen in a decade, the main event that day was some renovation of the façade of the National Assembly building because that was all the RTS showed. They never turned their cameras to take footage of the thousands of protestors in front of the Assembly’s gates. In marked contrast, Youssou Ndour’s channel, (Télévision Futurs Médias) like several other private channels, featured breaking news and interviews with the protest’s leaders, ensuring that people were kept informed.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYdOHs7-O8_M_S2dSHMONuX6sOEgEP1-bmTfsG7bizl6pmGZGtzgueWXq2NiRihUz3CevhFmaDnSkE2oFhAh2TIeofQ0K9pxNgosD1ZbRzZVJlSPPj4ipayTyj8IMniVVcYb-BaPBnE-bq/s1600/pic7.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYdOHs7-O8_M_S2dSHMONuX6sOEgEP1-bmTfsG7bizl6pmGZGtzgueWXq2NiRihUz3CevhFmaDnSkE2oFhAh2TIeofQ0K9pxNgosD1ZbRzZVJlSPPj4ipayTyj8IMniVVcYb-BaPBnE-bq/s320/pic7.png" width="320" /></a></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" ;font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:small;">The RTS covers the incoming election results. If viewers wanted a more animated reporting, they had to switch to another channel.</span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Youssou Ndour may have grabbed headlines when he announced his Presidential bid on his own television station. However, the most influential musicians of election season have been rappers who started the movement “Y en a marre” (“We’ve had enough/ We are fed up”). Many young people in Senegal look up to rappers and hip hop artists who offer a witty critical commentary on society and politics. This activist critique of the status quo is largely absent from the type of music Youssou Ndour pioneered, mbalax. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Y en a marre</i> is an ambitious movement that envisions an active citizenry pushing a transformation of Senegalese democracy. Professor Rosalind Fredericks described how <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Y en a marre</i> even established “esprits” or groups with community discussions in neighborhoods where women and people of all ages participate actively. The rappers often served as spokesmen of the opposition even though they were not running for office. They used media and social network technology to mobilize people, especially youth. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Now that <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Y en a marre</i> succeeded in thwarting Wade’s grab for a third term, the question is what next. In the past few weeks, cultural organizations have visibly funded several events but surely others outside of the foreign-funded cultural institutions have been organized. I think they are the expression of a real need and desire present in Senegal to celebrate but also to understand what happened and to ensure a future to the movement. As the poster on the left below has scrawled across it, “Résister, c’est le début de la victoire/Resistance is the beginning of victory.” But it is only a beginning.<o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4BgCpekaRrBRw7vy2d_WO3DZHzU62O5wdLtkAGAU8RYnEg21SXzxYiynn0apUXipa1sl5q9CTBjgs2kWTbDzQ84om4Mvah8znO9jorIPnnPg1ZnwYKPWwgYRXvwqjXcrmoC0bdwrq5u7b/s1600/pic8-1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4BgCpekaRrBRw7vy2d_WO3DZHzU62O5wdLtkAGAU8RYnEg21SXzxYiynn0apUXipa1sl5q9CTBjgs2kWTbDzQ84om4Mvah8znO9jorIPnnPg1ZnwYKPWwgYRXvwqjXcrmoC0bdwrq5u7b/s200/pic8-1.png" width="315" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvHh32q8MoTIszgZ5Ut-aGlDV3o4P7f1GIrrgnKr0mJ25eHAIkWe9yh4renBbNpMhj4ZYUdBJvm0iwfBJTyMgPvu-ssQJjKrKaBcdOX4EEUgm7VPuljoQqugeMiHx9wopeU4icOrgCsD7a/s1600/pic8-2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="450" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvHh32q8MoTIszgZ5Ut-aGlDV3o4P7f1GIrrgnKr0mJ25eHAIkWe9yh4renBbNpMhj4ZYUdBJvm0iwfBJTyMgPvu-ssQJjKrKaBcdOX4EEUgm7VPuljoQqugeMiHx9wopeU4icOrgCsD7a/s200/pic8-2.png" width="315" /></a></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0in; margin-left: -58.5pt; margin-right: -1.0in; margin-top: 0in;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div><div style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Posters for events on the election protests. In the left poster, rapper, filmmaker, and intellectual Awadi is featured in a victory pose. At the event, he will speak with Thiat, a leader of <i>Y en a marre</i> and a rapper in the group Keur Gui and other intellectuals. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Macky Sall now has the privilege of being at the helm in a country where his people have laid out a hopeful, ambitious vision of the future. However, he surely also must know that if he falls short, if he too starts to overstep his power, there is a young generation that can mobilize to defend their democracy. <o:p></o:p></span></div><div class="MsoNormal"><br /></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">In the U.S., we too have elections approaching. I think my generation here has much to learn from our counterparts in Senegal. For democracy and freedom need vigilance and action. Otherwise, we risk losing it all.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" line-height: 18px;font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: .5in;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" ;font-family:Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;color:#333333;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></span></div>14 Pointshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04159237609754068809noreply@blogger.com52tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-823573262921448979.post-5741550025588608582012-04-03T01:52:00.001-04:002012-04-08T20:15:55.967-04:00Swift and Proper Action Vital to Mali’s Crisis<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">By William Vu, MPA 2013</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">The precipitous turns that the country of Mali and its citizens have experienced over the past two weeks have stood in stark contrast to what has been perceived as a stable democracy in the West African region. It has seeped all the joy that was witnessed by Macky Sall’s democratic yet arduous pathway to power last weekend in Senegal.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">The infighting between the Malian government and the army has resulted in a Tuareg rebellion by those from the MNLA to reclaim the northern frontier of Mali as the territory of Azawad. The ranks of rebels had swelled from returning fighters from Libya, and this served as the initial catalyst to this rebellion. As of this post, the rebels have succeeded in claiming the strategic towns of Gao, Kidal, and most recently the well-known, ancient town of Timbuktu, where the military held its biggest garrison. <o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">While some may characterize it as the new “African Spring,” the apparent impetus for the coup was the government’s inability to provide soldiers with sufficient resources and ammunition to meet the rebels in the north. This led to a humiliating defeat for the army and a forced retreat. Escalating tensions finally reached a head between the army and the civilian government, and on March 21, President Amadou Toumani Touré (ATT) was ousted from power by a military junta. In the interim, stepped Captain Amadou Sanogo. <o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuhUtu2CJY52ROwGeiQpCA2AqzTiqNPnfeAJobnnDyeFK_fYrydeGHV09oZuBLaTRIXZnHfecAm40cVnNMD3nLJTZMv1cgICEuMwVoznQCxq7POIaWDmJayWYyCa48slSeRKB9VVWxmms6/s1600/Ousted%2520President%2520Amadou%2520Toumani%2520Toure.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjuhUtu2CJY52ROwGeiQpCA2AqzTiqNPnfeAJobnnDyeFK_fYrydeGHV09oZuBLaTRIXZnHfecAm40cVnNMD3nLJTZMv1cgICEuMwVoznQCxq7POIaWDmJayWYyCa48slSeRKB9VVWxmms6/s1600/Ousted%2520President%2520Amadou%2520Toumani%2520Toure.jpg" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: x-small;">Ousted President Amadou Toumani Touré</span></td></tr>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4GqZ7PI46sDiOmbilTFqZ2xAn7rYdqFSdDwo7RZWX59OLQqOqvKipe7BXtpzAJSC1Igt9rOE7BEUR44xXFH7kPkjmCAq6eNzloq-JkB4-K0GxAesSSA9wtS4Qu31PgTey4-KbuRTneYlG/s1600/Captain%2520Amadou%2520Sanogo.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4GqZ7PI46sDiOmbilTFqZ2xAn7rYdqFSdDwo7RZWX59OLQqOqvKipe7BXtpzAJSC1Igt9rOE7BEUR44xXFH7kPkjmCAq6eNzloq-JkB4-K0GxAesSSA9wtS4Qu31PgTey4-KbuRTneYlG/s320/Captain%2520Amadou%2520Sanogo.jpg" style="cursor: move;" width="320" /></a><br />
Coup leader Captain Amadou Sanogo</td></tr>
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</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">At that moment, leaders from all African nations and especially those in the region must have been on the edge of their seats. Although the rebellion had been in full swing for a couple months and reports of soldiers’ complaints against the government had surfaced, the thoughts of a coup would have been far-fetched. Democracy and stability were synonymous with Mali for two decades, a period of time that the track records that countries in the region have failed to emulate (i.e. Cote d’Ivoire, Sierra Leone). It would be a stretch to say democracy was flourishing or that its citizens were completely satisfied with ATT and his government. There were still wide reports of rampant corruption and mismanagement, but relative to the rest of the region, Mali had served as an exemplar. <o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">Furthermore, the presidential election was expected to take place in a little over a month before the coup began, on April 29<sup>th</sup>, with ATT expecting to leave office to make way for a new candidate. Such seamless political transitions are an oddity, given several West African leaders’ pre-disposure to extend their terms beyond the limits defined in their constitutions. Yet with a twist of irony, ATT, who was a military officer himself, would be sacked by the same mechanism that brought him to power two decades earlier, a coup. <o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">Since Captain Sanogo and the junta have moved into power, the regional bloc of nations, Ecowas and the international community have failed to recognize their legitimacy. They have threatened the junta with financial sanctions, freezing of assets and the closure of land borders. As these sanctions take form, it is likely that their implementation will cripple the economy, especially since the nation’s petrol is imported. There have been reports also that commercial banks are limiting the withdrawal of funds up to $1000, as clients brace for the sanctions. <o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">What might have been conceived as a plot to take over the reins of the government and install a military government has now turned into a chess match, with what concessions Ecowas and the civilian government are willing to offer the junta. Faced with the daily cascade of victories by the Tuaregs and the regional pressure to bow down, Captain Sanogo said on Sunday, that the junta would restore the nation’s constitution, and “organize free, open, and democratic elections” that the military will not participate in. This latter point is central because it is necessary that responsibility be returned to the civilian government. However, the military has still not offered a timeline for departure. <o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 13px;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX4uOSUlraI63bmoINSWzw9HT3JiV2Bs2_XL23YrWZomae8jbX9Y3r_-U8dU0Yi3IMhOtLqXaSLyM3dFBCDM9E86IjM1AgPH-60DWSd2XgbzzZOp8BHsF0FtjVe90JbJ5RHIIbCrBgnYoQ/s1600/Images%2520of%2520the%2520Tuareg%2520Rebellion.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="212" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgX4uOSUlraI63bmoINSWzw9HT3JiV2Bs2_XL23YrWZomae8jbX9Y3r_-U8dU0Yi3IMhOtLqXaSLyM3dFBCDM9E86IjM1AgPH-60DWSd2XgbzzZOp8BHsF0FtjVe90JbJ5RHIIbCrBgnYoQ/s320/Images%2520of%2520the%2520Tuareg%2520Rebellion.jpg" style="cursor: move;" width="320" /></a></span></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Taureg rebels captured control of major cities in northern Mali following the coup</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size: 13px;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1TQzo2EQwdqWrKanL4SmraLwpFsmAaGQJ12p2uicVpUvwGC8OWw46-6hRh0EmtA5kDOkZxK1Wvt0bqK4n4KaaBnr8Gf8b17ctvSEm-DYLpYXUUL991Gjlb7MSSJnGbBSksD44LXnMXvhU/s1600/Map%2520of%2520Mali.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1TQzo2EQwdqWrKanL4SmraLwpFsmAaGQJ12p2uicVpUvwGC8OWw46-6hRh0EmtA5kDOkZxK1Wvt0bqK4n4KaaBnr8Gf8b17ctvSEm-DYLpYXUUL991Gjlb7MSSJnGbBSksD44LXnMXvhU/s1600/Map%2520of%2520Mali.gif" style="cursor: move;" /></a></span></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Map of Mali</td></tr>
</tbody></table><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">In the midst of all this internal turmoil between the President and the military, three discernible things have occurred: (1) The MNLA have gained control of the north, with more citizens likely to be caught in the crossfire as the fighting continues, (2) the government remains in a state of confusion, (3) and finally the coup and the rebellion will only weaken the government’s ability to deal with the projected food crisis as the hot season approaches. <o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">It is unsure how (1) and (2) will unfold, but it is necessary that the military and civilian government find a swift compromise. Each day that the civilian government and junta fail to find common ground, another day the Tuareg rebellion advances. Assuming that the leaders of the MNLA will not cease fighting unless they gain recognition of their independent homeland, Ecowas and the international community will have to send in reinforcements if they want to preserve the territorial integrity of Mali. Even if the Malian army reconciles its differences with the government, it appears that external military assistance will be necessary given the Malian army’s recent spate of defeats and the MNLA’s unlikeness to compromise. This is a struggle that could last for weeks, if not for months. Hopefully not for years.<o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">(3) Finally, the event that might cause the biggest crisis is the projected food shortage. Some 13 million people in the Sahel region are facing food insecurity in 2012 as poor rains and locust attacks led to a drop in cereal production of 25 percent. Furthermore, over 200,000 people have been displaced since January with many fleeing to neighboring countries. With the conflict, the disruption of local and cross-border food markets have limited food supplies and increased prices, and it is expected that the lives and livelihoods of 3.5 million Malians were to be affected – even before the coup unfolded. Instability in the region will only aggravate the food insecurity. It is imperative that humanitarian aid continues to be ensured and that it reaches the north where the fighting is occurring. If not the stockpiles of dead bodies from starvation might dwarf those killed in any conflict. <o:p></o:p></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;"><br />
</div><div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify; text-justify: inter-ideograph;">As I periodically refresh my computer’s browser, my sense of optimism that a quick resolution between the military and the civilian government remains cautious. In no case is timing more of the essence, as the government and military not only have to deal with the Tuareg rebellion, but the impending food crisis. My thoughts drift not only to the soldier who steps upon the battlefield, but the mother who heads to the market and finds that food prices have increased beyond her budget. Thus, I can only hope that the actors in this show will make the proper decisions and soon…<o:p></o:p></div>14 Pointshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04159237609754068809noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-823573262921448979.post-21318249977931171812012-03-14T19:18:00.000-04:002012-03-14T19:18:36.680-04:00Heroin-Asisted Treatment of Drug Addicts and the Political Pitfalls of Harm ReductionBy Jesse Singal, MPA 2013<br />
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In a <a href="http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/03/12/heroin-works-better-than-methadone-so-why-won-t-politicians-allow-it.html">piece published Monday in The Daily Beast</a>, I covered a new study in the <a href="http://www.cmaj.ca/content/early/2012/03/12/cmaj.110669">Canadian Medical Association Journal</a> suggesting that the most cost-effective treatment for certain types of long-term heroin addicts might be... heroin. It's the latest in a rather long line of studies offering similar results.<br />
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It's a counterintuitive idea, and it highlights some of the political challenges of a favorite concept among public-health policy wonks: harm reduction. In short, harm reduction is the idea that rather than approach health issues with unrealistic, overly idealistic notions of the power of public policy, we need to understand that in many cases, the best we can hope to do is improve—not fix entirely—difficult, complicated situations. And as we seek to do so, evidence-based approaches should guide our efforts.*<br />
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Given how accustomed we are to big claims about quick fixes, it can be a hard concept to swallow. If one mayoral candidate promises to greatly drive down the "epidemic" of teen sex, and her opponent promises to improve sex education so as to reduce the number of teen pregnancies and the spread of STDs—well, it's easy to tell who will face more of an uphill battle come election day. A lot of people don't want to admit that teenagers always have had sex and always will.<br />
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Heroin-assisted treatment, or HAT, highlights this concept perfectly. No one wants to admit that a lot of addicts remain addicts for a long time, and the best we can hope to do (at a reasonable level of investment, at least) is to mitigate the damage they do to society. As I point out in the piece, even researchers sold on HAT's promise will admit that there’s something inherently crazy-sounding about the idea of giving heroin addicts heroin. “You sort of have to get over some pretty large hurdles of face implausibility,” Peter Reuter, a drug-policy expert at the University of Maryland, told me. “There’s something strange about the notion that on the one hand you prohibit this drug, but… if the user causes enough damage to society and to himself, well, we’ll give it to you free.”<br />
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But the idea starts to make sense the more one thinks about the neighborhoods that have been wrecked not because long-term heroin users <span style="font-style: italic;">use</span> heroin (there is no more docile creature in the world than an addict who has just shot up), but because of the collateral damage done by their <span style="font-style: italic;">search</span> for it—the petty crime, the violence, the black-market forces that shoot out of cracks in the social structure like thick tangled weeds. If heroin addicts didn't have to search for heroin, the damage wrought by the drug would be greatly ameliorated.<br />
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The notion of giving heroin to heroin addicts may make us uncomfortable; it just doesn't feel right in some deep, visceral way. But harm reduction is about being an adult, about realizing that sometimes you need to follow what the science tells you, even if it doesn't feel right.<br />
<br />
* Thanks to fellow MPA1 and budding public-health expert <a href="http://www.bdkeller.com/">Brett Keller</a> for letting me run this language by him.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-823573262921448979.post-63799783782325426432012-03-10T17:10:00.000-05:002012-03-10T17:10:16.814-05:00“Chasing Ice” Catches Up to Earth’s Changing Climate<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #333333;"></span></span><br />
<div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #333333; font: normal normal normal 0.875em/1.571428571428571 Georgia, Palatino, 'Times New Roman', serif; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">By Elisabeth A. Cohen, MPA candidate 2012</span></span></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 22px;">It’s probably hard to imagine all of Manhattan tumbling into the Hudson River and washing away in less than five minutes, but that’s the equivalent of what you’ll see in the film “<a href="http://chasingice.com/" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #336699; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Chasing Ice</a>,” as a city’s worth of towering icebergs collapse violently into the ocean — and that’s just one of countless spectacular images that flash across the screen in this astonishing documentary by director and cinematographer Jeff Orlowski, which premiered at <a href="http://www.sundance.org/festival/" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #336699; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Sundance</a> in January and is opening at <a href="http://sxsw.com/node/9271" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #336699; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">SXSW</a> this week. </span><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="line-height: 22px;"><br />
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</style> <![endif]--> <!--StartFragment--> <div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 10.0pt;"><span style="color: #262626;">The film is a documentary about a documentarian — a scientist-turned photographer named James Balog, whose obsession with images of ice has gotten him into the pages of <i>The New Yorker</i> and <i>National Geographic</i>. Despite his training as a geographer and geomorphologist, Balog was stunned to see how fast some of the glaciers that he shot were receding in the face of global warming. So he decided to create a long-term photography project he called the <a href="http://www.extremeicesurvey.org/"><span style="color: #29508b; text-decoration: none; text-underline: none;">Extreme Ice Survey</span></a> (EIS), which he hoped would merge art and science into a compelling story in pictures about what humans are doing to the climate.</span><o:p></o:p></div><!--EndFragment--></span></span></div><div><div><div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #333333; font: normal normal normal 0.875em/1.571428571428571 Georgia, Palatino, 'Times New Roman', serif; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></div><div class="imgleft" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; float: left; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 20px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 450px;"><div style="text-align: left;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a class="box" href="http://www.climatecentral.org/images/uploads/blogs/blog-fromm-chasingice.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #336699; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="" height="300" src="http://www.climatecentral.org/images/sized/images/uploads/blogs/blog-fromm-chasingice-450x300.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="450" /></a></span></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #333333; font-style: italic; font: normal normal normal 0.775em/1.57143 Georgia, Palatino, 'Times New Roman', serif; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;">A layer of cryoconite, dust which absorbs solar radiation, melting the snow, at the bottom of a Greenland Ice Sheet channel, July 2009. Credit: James Balog/Extreme Ice Survey. </div><div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #333333; font-style: italic; font: normal normal normal 0.775em/1.57143 Georgia, Palatino, 'Times New Roman', serif; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;"><br />
</div></span></div><div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #333333; font: normal normal normal 0.875em/1.571428571428571 Georgia, Palatino, 'Times New Roman', serif; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></div><div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #333333; font: normal normal normal 0.875em/1.571428571428571 Georgia, Palatino, 'Times New Roman', serif; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">Originally, Balog planned to set up two time-lapse cameras to photograph glaciers, but within a few weeks his ambition had grown: he bought 23 more cameras, then assembled a team of 30 scientific experts, engineers, and photographers to help him carry out his vision. Balog also asked Orlowski to film the project. “I wanted to work with James in some capacity,” said Orlowski, and the collaboration turned into “Chasing Ice.”</span></span></div><div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #333333; font: normal normal normal 0.875em/1.571428571428571 Georgia, Palatino, 'Times New Roman', serif; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The movie is nothing short of spectacular. As you watch, you can see how Balog and his team set up all of those cameras on three continents, in places including Alaska, the Rockies, Greenland, Iceland, and Mt. Everest. The team worked in below-freezing temperatures and high winds, rigged cameras to the sides of cliffs, and programmed them to take automatic photos every half-hour, powered by solar panels. In total, they captured more than a million glacier portraits over five years. “Without a doubt,” Orloski said, “this has been the most challenging project in my life.”</span></span></div><div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #333333; font: normal normal normal 0.875em/1.571428571428571 Georgia, Palatino, 'Times New Roman', serif; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">The same is clearly true for Balog and the rest of the team, but the photos they brought back are incredibly valuable. It’s one thing to see an image of a single retreating glacier, but Balog’s cameras recorded dramatic changes in glaciers around the world. The Columbia glacier in Alaska is just one striking example. Since 1984, the Columbia has deflated by a thickness equivalent to height of the Empire State Building. Over the life of the project, it retreated so quickly that to keep the edge of the glacier in the frame, the team had to keep returning to adjust the camera’s angle. “We never expected to see the glaciers change as much as we’ve seen,” Orlowski said. “That was the most shocking part for us.”</span></span></div><div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #333333; font: normal normal normal 0.875em/1.571428571428571 Georgia, Palatino, 'Times New Roman', serif; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">On one trip to Alaska, Orlowski recalled, “there are entire areas where we spent days and days climbing on ice, using our ice tools, and going up and down parts of the glacier. When we revisited them, all that ice was gone. The landscape looks so different that you almost don’t recognize it . . . that giant playground, that world of ice we were pretty much living on for a week, is completely gone.”</span></span></div><div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #333333; font: normal normal normal 0.875em/1.571428571428571 Georgia, Palatino, 'Times New Roman', serif; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">For the director, the experience was eye-opening. “We think of glaciers as being part of geologic time,” he said, “something that happens over centuries and thousands of years.” What Balog has shown so vividly, he said, is that in a warming world, this conception is completely out of date.</span></span></div><div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #333333; font: normal normal normal 0.875em/1.571428571428571 Georgia, Palatino, 'Times New Roman', serif; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">On the other side of North America, in Greenland, Orlowski and project engineer Adam LeWinter stood watch in frigid conditions waiting for the end of a massive tidewater glacier to break off into the sea — a calving event, a glaciologist would call it. Finally, on the 17<sup style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; font: normal normal normal 0.785714285714286em/normal Georgia, Palatino, 'Times New Roman', serif; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 1px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: top;">th</sup> day, it happened. With nine cameras rolling, they recorded a chunk of ice some 400 feet deep and three miles wide calve off of the Ilulissat Glacier — and in a little more than an hour, the glacier continued disintegrating until it had retreated a total of about 1 mile. The block of ice that retreated and broke off into the ocean could have fit about 3,000 U.S. Capital buildings in it. Orlowski and his team condensed this event into a 3-minute clip that was, to put it simply, awesome. For Orlowski, watching this live “was a life-changing event. Adam [the engineer] and I were the only two there and we felt we were watching history unfolding in front of us.”</span></span></div><div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #333333; font: normal normal normal 0.875em/1.571428571428571 Georgia, Palatino, 'Times New Roman', serif; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></div><div class="imgleft" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; float: left; margin-bottom: 15px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 20px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; width: 450px;"><div style="text-align: left;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a class="box" href="http://www.climatecentral.org/images/uploads/blogs/blog-fromm-balog.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #336699; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="" height="254" src="http://www.climatecentral.org/images/sized/images/uploads/blogs/blog-fromm-balog-450x254.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="450" /></a></span></div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #333333; font-style: italic; font: normal normal normal 0.775em/1.57143 Georgia, Palatino, 'Times New Roman', serif; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;">James Balog hangs off a cliff near Columbia Glacier, Alaska to install a time-lapse camera. Credit: Tad Pfeffer/Extreme Ice Survey. </div></span></div><div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #333333; font: normal normal normal 0.875em/1.571428571428571 Georgia, Palatino, 'Times New Roman', serif; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"></div><div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #333333; font: normal normal normal 0.875em/1.571428571428571 Georgia, Palatino, 'Times New Roman', serif; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">“Chasing Ice” has lots of this natural drama, but there’s plenty of human drama as well. A couple of years into the project, for example, Balog had surgery on his knee. He opted for a procedure that had a quicker recovery time, so he could get back into the field faster, but it wasn’t as effective in the long run. His doctor ordered him to quit ice climbing — an order he promptly ignored. One night Balog even walked out onto the ice on crutches to capture one of Orlowski’s favorite photos of the entire project. There are also lots of action scenes, with members of the team rappelling into gaping crevasses, making the movie a cross between a frozen “Planet Earth” and an action film. In fact, “Chasing Ice” won the best adventure film award at the Boulder International Film Festival.</span></span></div><div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #333333; font: normal normal normal 0.875em/1.571428571428571 Georgia, Palatino, 'Times New Roman', serif; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">What is perhaps most surprising about the film is that Balog used to be a climate skeptic. He explains how he once thought that climate change theory was based solely on computer models, where in fact it’s based on scientific measurements of both modern and ancient climates. Once Balog learned that tree rings, sea floor sediments, and ice core data were showing that the climate is warming on average, he changed his mind. Orlowski’s film about Balog could, in turn, change the mind of other climate skeptics. One thing that struck me, however, was that although the evidence of climate change is overwhelming in “Chasing Ice,” there’s very little about slowing or stopping the planet from warming. </span></span></div><div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #333333; font: normal normal normal 0.875em/1.571428571428571 Georgia, Palatino, 'Times New Roman', serif; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">It is hard to decide whether the jaw-dropping imagery or the climate-change messages in this film were more compelling. But it’s no surprise that the film received the “Excellence in Cinematography Award: U.S. Documentary” during the 2012 Sundance film festival. In at least one screening at the Sundance Film Festival, the audience leapt to its feet cheering.</span></span></div><div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #333333; font: normal normal normal 0.875em/1.571428571428571 Georgia, Palatino, 'Times New Roman', serif; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">To do this film justice, go see it on the big screen. The next opportunity to see the film is at the South by Southwest (SXSW) arts and music festival in Austin, TX the second week of March. The TV rights to “Chasing Ice” have been acquired by the National Geographic Channel and its website says a theatrical partner will follow shortly. To find out more see <a href="http://www.indiewire.com/article/national-geographic-takes-chasing-ice" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #336699; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">National Geographic Channel Takes 'Chasing Ice'</a> and visit the movie’s <a href="http://chasingice.com/" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #336699; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">website</a>. For “Chasing Ice” movie show times at SXSW click <a href="http://schedule.sxsw.com/2012/events/event_FS12544" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #336699; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">here</a>.</span></span></div><div style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-color: transparent; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-color: initial; border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-style: initial; border-top-width: 0px; color: #333333; font: normal normal normal 0.875em/1.571428571428571 Georgia, Palatino, 'Times New Roman', serif; margin-bottom: 20px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; outline-color: initial; outline-style: initial; outline-width: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">* <i>This article is reposted, with <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/about/republish-our-content/">permission</a>, from <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/chasing-ice-catches-up-to-earths-changing-climate/">Climate Central</a>. </i></span></span></div></div></div></div>14 Pointshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04159237609754068809noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-823573262921448979.post-59297525410479588662012-03-06T16:33:00.004-05:002012-03-07T15:42:43.427-05:00Removing Nigeria’s Oil Subsidy<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="Times New Roman", "serif"; font-family:";font-size:12pt;">Ayokunde Abogan, MPA</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="Times New Roman", "serif"; font-family:";font-size:12pt;"><br /></span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="Times New Roman", "serif"; font-family:";font-size:12pt;">Nigeria is well known for its vast natural and human resources. It has the largest population in Africa (the 10<sup>th</sup> largest population globally) and its crude oil resources gives it a respectable 6<sup>th</sup> position in the world in terms of its export levels in the global oil market. Despite the country’s wealth, it has been difficult to leverage these resources to reduce the high levels of youth unemployment and poverty in country. While oil revenues represent only 14 percent of Nigeria’s GDP, it accounts for 98% of export earnings and close to 90% of the federal government’s revenue according to World Bank estimates in 2009. A significant proportion, about 31.4% of the country’s GDP is connected to exports and this is largely driven by its vast crude oil resources. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="Times New Roman", "serif"; font-family:";font-size:12pt;">In essence, my country is primarily dependent on its oil resources for a lot of things. Although the economy is very much diversified with the burgeoning financial services, entertainment and telecommunications sectors moving up the ranks to take their respective places in the overall economy, the country’s vast agriculture and manufacturing sectors are crumbling. Government bias, mismanagement and inconceivable policies have all made it impossible to grow both sectors. This is further compounded by high electricity costs, dilapidated transportation networks, high business costs and political instability arising from religious and ethnic violence. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></div><br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJwZE_ZBLmCYYamY4uFjqOF_RV4kx4cQplUsx2j3tNE0LDnolvkYDIb8rcBlQbGQCLYnqneiup1QPjo5DNrN_Ebs7IzujyKzrWJlsXATMNy_-soXIlkgTv1UBa_MWVP4TA5krivlh205A/s1600/occupy-nigeria-2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhJwZE_ZBLmCYYamY4uFjqOF_RV4kx4cQplUsx2j3tNE0LDnolvkYDIb8rcBlQbGQCLYnqneiup1QPjo5DNrN_Ebs7IzujyKzrWJlsXATMNy_-soXIlkgTv1UBa_MWVP4TA5krivlh205A/s400/occupy-nigeria-2.jpg" uda="true" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The "Occupy Nigeria" Logo</td></tr></tbody></table> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="Times New Roman", "serif"; font-family:";font-size:12pt;">A couple of my classmates have asked me about my thoughts regarding the removal of these fuel subsidies. Although I supported the government’s policy to remove it, I questioned the way this policy was hurriedly implemented. I supported it because this subsidy was costing the country about $7 billion every year. This is a lot of money that the government can spend on revamping our lagging educational system and improve our decaying infrastructural framework. Our health services systems are lacking needed funds to improve health interventions and delivery while the youths in the country are largely unemployed. Social welfare for the impoverished will go a long way to reduce the high levels of income inequality in my country. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="Times New Roman", "serif"; font-family:";font-size:12pt;">However, I don’t support the way the entire fuel subsidy was removed without any recourse as to how the citizenry will mitigate the impact of any shocks to their incomes and overall well-being. Rather, this subsidy ought to have been removed gradually. Nevertheless, any promises by the federal government to devote the proceeds of this fuel subsidy to tangible investments is something all Nigerians would wish for due to the crass levels of patronage and corruption. Government subsidies for diesel fuel and kerosene that were removed in the past have yet to translate into any meaningful investments in the country apart from the small number of people who have lined their pockets with the country’s wealth.</span></div><br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitsWC46wXXft0JdRR1XUozjVtgY6NbPjGqBesjCs6jiuPDLDWAuQh22b9GDRJIIG53l7cY0pMfhZrppQeV1d1i5G6YpkPdMSQitdJkfLu5fuGkjHSV35RzeSaP1QaRSzboBaob5p1r2TA/s1600/imagesCAIEK56V.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="223" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitsWC46wXXft0JdRR1XUozjVtgY6NbPjGqBesjCs6jiuPDLDWAuQh22b9GDRJIIG53l7cY0pMfhZrppQeV1d1i5G6YpkPdMSQitdJkfLu5fuGkjHSV35RzeSaP1QaRSzboBaob5p1r2TA/s400/imagesCAIEK56V.jpg" uda="true" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Fuel prices before the oil subsidy was eliminated was N65 per litre. Prices rose to as much as N140 when the subsidy was removed.</td></tr></tbody></table> <br /><br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUM9d8Uw9yHz0CmHUzw-kcoMcxwIog_uGZW4luyP18Nb77j7viM5aJLRnpF6j3waVKj7LZVu7-YzKc3QFahwBG-g8xgsUPtkEcroAXiGVLTRpK2Sejph4bXiUhAIaZ7Y_REjqWTJnqxco/s1600/imagesCA1FK1MM.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjUM9d8Uw9yHz0CmHUzw-kcoMcxwIog_uGZW4luyP18Nb77j7viM5aJLRnpF6j3waVKj7LZVu7-YzKc3QFahwBG-g8xgsUPtkEcroAXiGVLTRpK2Sejph4bXiUhAIaZ7Y_REjqWTJnqxco/s400/imagesCA1FK1MM.jpg" uda="true" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Occupy Nigeria protestor in Lagos, Nigeria</td></tr></tbody></table> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="Times New Roman", "serif"; font-family:";font-size:12pt;">To speak about this madness called “fuel subsidy” requires a walk down memory lane. However, let me start by saying a country like Nigeria, which is also the largest crude oil exporter in the African continent, imports fuel into the country. Aaaah, yes, I know this makes no sense. Unfortunately, it does. Nigeria has four national refineries that are barely functional because of the country’s poor planning and maintenance culture, and even more, our refining plants are ageing while the pipelines linking these plants have lacked adequate investments and they are terribly unreliable to support uninterrupted domestic production. Thus, Nigeria is forced to refine its crude oil resources outside its borders and then it imports the refined products, mostly from European suppliers, to satisfy the energy needs of its large population. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="Times New Roman", "serif"; font-family:";font-size:12pt;">Estimates according to the Nigerian oil and gas industry reveal that the country imports about 85 percent of its fuel needs, while the country subsidizes these imported products to ensure that fuel prices at the pump is around half of the market rate to its citizens. In 2010, Nigeria spent 1.20 trillion naira (about $6.7 billion) to import fuel into the country. Sadly, a system ingrained in corruption makes it very difficult to know how these large amounts of money are accounted for in Nigeria’s budgetary processes. Worse, the bill all Nigerians have hoped will fix the country’s oil sector is yet to be passed. </span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="Times New Roman", "serif"; font-family:";font-size:12pt;">Although things have calmed because the government had to reverse its stand, on the fuel subsidy, when the country was teetering on the brink of political and economic catastrophe, I still think that the fuel subsidy is nothing more than an opportunity for some people in the country to enrich themselves, while the country is continually lagging behind its peers both in the African continent and globally. Yes, Nigerians, including me, have benefitted from these subsidized fuel prices but the question should be: for how long are we going to keep on subsidizing fuel prices in Nigeria? Nigeria has a lot of potential and it has always frustrated me that a country which prides itself as the “Giant of Africa” cannot get its act together. The issue is Nigerians cannot trust its government to do anything meaningful while the government is finding it very difficult to address the challenges faced by average Nigerians. </span></div><br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgE-OWfliFh7Y7eufM82QzKmML-iXZKELF4l9NYmFi9jk39YEsiiNBgMn-b-GGRyTSjMQlPvxh9SZ4IhYVbmaEvUGWNI8qi6-KWMGEV2qVM0hMBXpQShRdvG_vcHMjyMrMUTz4wCcXFrsA/s1600/imagesCAV9ZC1L.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgE-OWfliFh7Y7eufM82QzKmML-iXZKELF4l9NYmFi9jk39YEsiiNBgMn-b-GGRyTSjMQlPvxh9SZ4IhYVbmaEvUGWNI8qi6-KWMGEV2qVM0hMBXpQShRdvG_vcHMjyMrMUTz4wCcXFrsA/s400/imagesCAV9ZC1L.jpg" uda="true" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Nigerians' view about the relationship between the Nigerian government and its citizens. </td></tr></tbody></table> <br /><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="Times New Roman", "serif"; font-family:";font-size:12pt;">I have always wondered what it will take to fix my country and get it on a path to economic success. This is the reason why I decided to come to the Woodrow Wilson School to get a better sense of what to do to address development challenges and economic growth cases like Nigeria’s, that don’t create enough employment opportunities for their citizens but only makes the rich richer while the poor continue to suffer in order to meet their daily needs. I am happy to take suggestions from people who care about the success of my country however, as the adage goes, “heaven helps those who help themselves.” Nigeria needs all hands on deck to move it forward and I think this is a responsibility of all including my fellow compatriots.</span></div><div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin: 0in 0in 10pt;"><span style="Times New Roman", "serif"; font-family:";font-size:12pt;">Call me elitist or dumb, I will still support the removal of this government fuel subsidy if this issue rears its ugly head again. However, this time, it is important to use better tools that will ease the impact of subsidies particularly on wallets of poor and middle-income Nigerians. Still, I imagine it might be the right path to reduce the current challenges in Nigeria’s oil sector, and a significant step towards measurable progress on good governance and development. I don’t usually agree with Jeffrey Sachs on a lot of development issues but I am forced to concur that the “</span><span style="background: white; Times New Roman", "serif";font-family:";color:black;">oil subsidy benefits the rich more than the poor and that the subsidy, when removed, [should] be used in targeted investments that serve the poor and more meaningful social investments.”</span><span style="Times New Roman", "serif"; font-family:";font-size:12pt;"> </span></div><br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWR2L5XZKulVnGKxNZqAhZBKvwZaNc62FQgb8aLEbWQhQFvRN_6WY1KKr4qXVJUjpmZSc0o3CsoJvjqJhTUP6yMnVtLz14t3d2gsDzTyFS1byeaQZm4MYWy9bwQCC4gmOxFv7_09LShSg/s1600/naija.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="261" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjWR2L5XZKulVnGKxNZqAhZBKvwZaNc62FQgb8aLEbWQhQFvRN_6WY1KKr4qXVJUjpmZSc0o3CsoJvjqJhTUP6yMnVtLz14t3d2gsDzTyFS1byeaQZm4MYWy9bwQCC4gmOxFv7_09LShSg/s400/naija.jpg" uda="true" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Occupy Nigeria in Lagos. The economy of the country was virtually at a standstill while the protests went on for eight days</td></tr></tbody></table> <br /><br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjh8Qffx1YI0NCeY6fyUgoshbKQbWYniMt0kMA0dhWGjsjVTtRCNQTptmxD-QpUC0kzLYL_NAIn9b6_WfFRzwBz-poOzPbo9M_yLzMXcP6mPhuVzm-ouxzhxAl2v7iFQ1-2T1kwdSx9nVA/s1600/Occupy-Nigeria-Protest-Photos-31.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjh8Qffx1YI0NCeY6fyUgoshbKQbWYniMt0kMA0dhWGjsjVTtRCNQTptmxD-QpUC0kzLYL_NAIn9b6_WfFRzwBz-poOzPbo9M_yLzMXcP6mPhuVzm-ouxzhxAl2v7iFQ1-2T1kwdSx9nVA/s400/Occupy-Nigeria-Protest-Photos-31.jpg" uda="true" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Occupy Nigeria in London. Nigerians in diaspora also joined their family and friends in Nigeria to protest the actions of the Federal government. </td></tr></tbody></table> Ayohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07321501368584040030noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-823573262921448979.post-44879800702042970092012-02-26T15:47:00.019-05:002012-02-26T21:23:24.831-05:00Will Senegal Get a New President? An Analysis of the February 2012 Elections<div style="text-align: left;">By Jennifer Browning, MPA</div><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj5Tj6v59IGZERSkXyQWeqd5f4Xs9FtGu2VoYiEJ8NVRgiOnrzYFCCQrugwu_5f6Oq01d5BcRkkG1qn8fxK9kP8H21-KvxQyDUf9JE5TRwFYWewU-tq28b109qiRDdS78e2SDk-7DSeiY/s1600/drapeau_senegal.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 250px; height: 189.5px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj5Tj6v59IGZERSkXyQWeqd5f4Xs9FtGu2VoYiEJ8NVRgiOnrzYFCCQrugwu_5f6Oq01d5BcRkkG1qn8fxK9kP8H21-KvxQyDUf9JE5TRwFYWewU-tq28b109qiRDdS78e2SDk-7DSeiY/s1600/drapeau_senegal.jpg" border="0" alt="" /></a><div><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:officedocumentsettings> <o:allowpng/> </o:OfficeDocumentSettings> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:trackmoves>false</w:TrackMoves> <w:trackformatting/> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:drawinggridhorizontalspacing>18 pt</w:DrawingGridHorizontalSpacing> <w:drawinggridverticalspacing>18 pt</w:DrawingGridVerticalSpacing> <w:displayhorizontaldrawinggridevery>0</w:DisplayHorizontalDrawingGridEvery> <w:displayverticaldrawinggridevery>0</w:DisplayVerticalDrawingGridEvery> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:compatibility> <w:breakwrappedtables/> <w:dontgrowautofit/> <w:dontautofitconstrainedtables/> <w:dontvertalignintxbx/> <w:usefelayout/> </w:Compatibility> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:latentstyles deflockedstate="false" latentstylecount="276"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--> <!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--> <!--StartFragment--> </span></p> <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:officedocumentsettings> <o:allowpng/> </o:OfficeDocumentSettings> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:trackmoves>false</w:TrackMoves> <w:trackformatting/> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:drawinggridhorizontalspacing>18 pt</w:DrawingGridHorizontalSpacing> <w:drawinggridverticalspacing>18 pt</w:DrawingGridVerticalSpacing> <w:displayhorizontaldrawinggridevery>0</w:DisplayHorizontalDrawingGridEvery> <w:displayverticaldrawinggridevery>0</w:DisplayVerticalDrawingGridEvery> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:compatibility> <w:breakwrappedtables/> <w:dontgrowautofit/> <w:dontautofitconstrainedtables/> <w:dontvertalignintxbx/> </w:Compatibility> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:latentstyles deflockedstate="false" latentstylecount="276"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--> <!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--> <!--StartFragment--> <p class="MsoNormal">Senegal’s elections are today. After months of mass protests against the current President Abdoulaye Wade’s candidacy, election day has finally arrived, amidst great anticipation and uncertainty.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>Many people are worried that President Wade, who is at least 85 years old, will win a controversial third term and worse, use his next term to install his son, Karim Wade.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span>I am going to Harlem soon where there is a large Senegalese diaspora to follow news on the RTS (Radio Télévision Sénégalaise) and other Senegalese channels if available. <span style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </span></p> <!--EndFragment--><p class="MsoNormal">As is often stated, Senegal is the only country in West Africa that has had uninterrupted elections without military rule since Independence. It is considered by the international community to be a stable democracy that has escaped the fate of its neighbors.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><img style="display:block; margin:0px auto 10px; text-align:center;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 400px; height: 220px;" src="http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2012/02/24/world/24SENEGAL/24SENEGAL-articleLarge.jpg" border="0" alt="" /></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/24/world/africa/senegal-election-troubled-by-atypical-unrest.html?_r=2&src=tp&smid=fb-share"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:100%;">Above, <span class="Apple-style-span" style=" ;font-family:Cambria;">President Abdoulaye Wade, Feb. 23, 2012, approximately 85 years old.</span></span></a></p> <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:officedocumentsettings> <o:allowpng/> </o:OfficeDocumentSettings> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:trackmoves>false</w:TrackMoves> <w:trackformatting/> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:drawinggridhorizontalspacing>18 pt</w:DrawingGridHorizontalSpacing> <w:drawinggridverticalspacing>18 pt</w:DrawingGridVerticalSpacing> <w:displayhorizontaldrawinggridevery>0</w:DisplayHorizontalDrawingGridEvery> <w:displayverticaldrawinggridevery>0</w:DisplayVerticalDrawingGridEvery> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:compatibility> <w:breakwrappedtables/> <w:dontgrowautofit/> <w:dontautofitconstrainedtables/> <w:dontvertalignintxbx/> <w:usefelayout/> </w:Compatibility> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:latentstyles deflockedstate="false" latentstylecount="276"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--> <!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--> <!--StartFragment--><div> <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <o:officedocumentsettings> <o:allowpng/> </o:OfficeDocumentSettings> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:trackmoves>false</w:TrackMoves> <w:trackformatting/> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:drawinggridhorizontalspacing>18 pt</w:DrawingGridHorizontalSpacing> <w:drawinggridverticalspacing>18 pt</w:DrawingGridVerticalSpacing> <w:displayhorizontaldrawinggridevery>0</w:DisplayHorizontalDrawingGridEvery> <w:displayverticaldrawinggridevery>0</w:DisplayVerticalDrawingGridEvery> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:compatibility> <w:breakwrappedtables/> <w:dontgrowautofit/> <w:dontautofitconstrainedtables/> <w:dontvertalignintxbx/> </w:Compatibility> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:latentstyles deflockedstate="false" latentstylecount="276"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--> <!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:12.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} </style> <![endif]--> <!--StartFragment--> <p class="MsoNormal">And regional instability is a fact. I lived and worked in Senegal for three years until returning to the U.S. for graduate school last July 2011. During one nine month period (August 2008- March 2009), three of the five countries bordering Senegal experienced a coup. The fourth (internal) neighbor, The Gambia, has been ruled since 1994 by a dictator.</p><img src="http://www.lonelyplanet.com/maps/africa/senegal/map_of_senegal.jpg" border="0" alt="" style="float: right; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: 10px; cursor: pointer; width: 310px; height: 233px; " /></div><div><p class="MsoNormal">Senegal’s democracy stands in stark contrast to this trajectory. Senegal has achieved political stability, almost too much one could argue. For the first forty years, Senegal had only two different Presidents, Léopold Sédar Senghor followed by Abdou Diouf who both were part of the Socialist Party. Wade, leader of the Socialist Democratic Party, was the first opposition leader to be elected President in 2000. Despite the lack of power sharing in its first forty years, Senegal’s democracy stands as a great achievement post-colonialism in West Africa. Here we will not explore the possible contributions by the international community to some of this history of instability. Rather I want to focus on how the protests in Senegal have shown the importance of Senegalese people’s agency and commitment to democracy. </p> <p class="MsoNormal">In late spring 2011, President Wade attempted to amend the constitution in a flagrant attempt to facilitate his victory today. He wanted to lower the percentage it would take to win the first round of the election (to win easily over a divided opposition) and create a Vice Presidency position (people worried for his son). On June 23, 2011, the biggest protests in a decade occurred in front of National Assembly in downtown Dakar and accompanied to a lesser extent, in cities throughout the country. The protests were successful in forcing Wade to withdraw his reform. They marked a turning point, and suddenly most radios and television stations aired aggressive critiques of Wade.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/files/fp_uploaded_images/110728_rsz_senegal_119655387.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img src="http://foreignpolicy.com/files/fp_uploaded_images/110728_rsz_senegal_119655387.jpg" border="0" alt="" style="display: block; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: auto; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 405.5px; height: 260px; " /></a></p><div style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style=" ;font-family:Cambria;font-size:100%;"><a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/files/fp_uploaded_images/110728_rsz_senegal_119655387.jpg">Protests on June 23, 2011 in Dakar against Wade’s proposed constitutional amendments.</a></span></div><p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">I liked what candidate (and former longtime Minister of Foreign Affairs under Wade) Cheikh Tidiane Gadio said on a television interview I saw while visiting Senegal in early January 2012. To paraphrase loosely from my memory, Gadio stated, “June 23 has shown that Senegal can handle its own problems. Senegal does not need the international community to solve its domestic problems.” Certainly, the protesters handled the threat to their constitution with a mass mobilization and succeeded in forcing Wade to back down from the constitutional amendment.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Equally interesting, rappers have played a crucial role in the resistance against Wade. Senegal has one of the world’s most important hip hop scenes, and nothing mobilizes the youth in Senegal like smart, politically charged rap. A contingent of rappers formed the group “Y en a marre” or “We’ve had enough/We are fed up” to protest Wade’s candidacy and to call for voter registration and citizen participation in the elections. While this group along with M23, the Movement of the 23rd of June, have been very successful at mobilizing huge protests and using social and traditional media to get out their views, they do not officially endorse a candidate in the opposition.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://www.aufaitmaroc.com/pictures/0099/1597/photo_1329907181994-1-0.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img src="http://www.aufaitmaroc.com/pictures/0099/1597/photo_1329907181994-1-0.jpg" border="0" alt="" style="display: block; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: auto; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 500px; height: 333px; " /></a></p><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.aufaitmaroc.com/monde/afrique/2012/2/22/senegal-yen-a-marre-bouscule-la-donne-dans-le-combat-democratique"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:100%;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style:normal"><span style="font-family:Cambria;mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"MS 明朝";mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-bidi-Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language: EN-USfont-family:";">Y en a marre</span></i><span style="font-family:Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-fareast-font-family:"MS 明朝";mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast;mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;mso-bidi-Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language: EN-USfont-family:";"> rappers and protesters in Dakar.</span></span></a></div><p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">A major obstacle to their movement has been the divided opposition. The protesters agree that Wade has to go, but there is no agreement on who should replace him. At a panel I attended at Columbia University a couple of weeks ago, Professor Mamadou Diouf highlighted three leading candidates Moustapha Niasse (who was a former strongman of the Socialist Party), Idrissa Seck (current Mayor of Thies and former Prime Minister under Wade for the Social Democratic Party (PDS)), and Macky Sall (who followed Idrissa Seck as Prime Minister under Wade).</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Several opposition candidates, most famously the international music star, Youssou Ndour, were not allowed to run in the controversial decision by the Constitutional Court, who also issued a decision that Wade could run for a third term. I want to emphasize that the exclusion of Youssou Ndour’s candidacy has probably made him more important than if he had been allowed to run. I was in Senegal when he announced his decision to seek the Presidency early January 2012. While his declaration made international headlines, my impression was that most people take him seriously as a musician but not as a candidate. They often cited that he little formal schooling and therefore not qualified. However, his exclusion from being a candidate has made him an even more vocal critic and visible participant in the mass protests.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://ds4.ds.static.rtbf.be/article/big_info/2/8/e/624_341_photo_1329865201657-2-0.jpg" onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}"><img src="http://ds4.ds.static.rtbf.be/article/big_info/2/8/e/624_341_photo_1329865201657-2-0.jpg" border="0" alt="" style="display: block; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: auto; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 500px; height: 272.8px; " /></a></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:100%;"><a href="http://www.blogger.com/Youssou%20Ndour%20at%20a%20protest%20in%20Dakar%20where%20he%20was%20injured.">Youssou Ndour at a protest in Dakar where he was injured.</a></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: left;">The constitutional court decision on January 27, 2012 that allowed Wade to seek a third term has been highly criticized by the opposition. However, Awadi, a leading rapper and intellectual in Senegal, may have found the most clever way of mocking the legality of President Wade’s candidacy. At the end of his new music video, Mame Boye, if you scroll to minute 2:46, Awadi creates a parody of the ataya tea drinking custom to criticize Wade’s bid for a third term. After meals in Senegal, people drink Mauritanian mint tea, ataya. In this highly ritualized tradition, you are offered a first cup of tea which is more bitter and then as the tea cooks down more, you are offered a second cup of tea which is sweeter. </p><p class="MsoNormal"><iframe width="448" height="252" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/T0bITYSCsNA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe></p> <p class="MsoNormal">For those that do not speak French, I will try to translate what unfolds...</p> <p class="MsoNormal">In Awadi’s video, we have an old man (representing Wade) next to a younger, paler man (representing Karim whose mother is French and who speaks little Wolof, the dominant African language in Senegal). Wade asks for a second cup of tea, but the other young men making the ataya point out that he already drank his second cup. They then point to the “ataya constitution” that the old man has posted on the wall, clearly limiting everyone to two cups. Wade insists that he did not get a second cup, prompting a young man asks if he is losing his memory (a reference to his advanced age). So Wade finally asks for a third cup. When they refuse, he takes down the constitution and stands on it, saying, “Fine, I said only two; well, I take it back” referring to when he at one time said he would only stand for two terms. The ending caption says that “any resemblance to actual persons or events was entirely on purpose and not accidental. And that what is coming next [i.e. the elections] should really be watched.”</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Awadi also mocks Wade’s attempt to install Karim in power by having Wade say when he learned that Karim bought the real Mauritanian tea, “ I will tell your mom that you did a good job./ Je dirais a ta maman que tu as bien travaillé.” In reality, Wade uttered this now famous phrase when praising Karim for his mdirection in organizing the Organization of the Islamic Conference meetings in Dakar in March 2008. The management of the OIC meetings was later criticized as being corrupt.</p><p class="MsoNormal"><img src="http://www.rfi.fr/actuen/images/111/wade_432_30012009.jpg" border="0" alt="" style="display: block; margin-top: 0px; margin-right: auto; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-left: auto; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 432px; height: 316px; color: rgb(0, 0, 238); -webkit-text-decorations-in-effect: underline; " /></p> <p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.rfi.fr/actuen/articles/111/article_3257.asp">Local elections setback for presidential succession plans. </a></p><p class="MsoNormal">Despite the strong and highly mediatized protests by Y en a marre, M23, and other opposition groups, many people will vote for Wade. There have also been large protests in favor of Wade, although some people claim that Wade pays these supporters to show up. But Wade does have many legitimate supporters, and faced with a divided opposition, people may choose the evil that they know rather than the one they do not.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">However, I believe though that if elections are transparent today, no candidate will get a majority and elections will thus advance to a second round with just two candidates, Wade and an opposition candidate. This may give the opposition the unity it has been lacking around one candidate.</p> <p class="MsoNormal">I don’t want to see the hope broken for youth who have protested in this movement and tried to take charge of their democracy. I want what I want for my own country, that we believe the system can still be changed and we act to change it.</p><p class="MsoNormal"> I’m off to Harlem.</p> <!--EndFragment--></div><p></p> <!--EndFragment--></div>14 Pointshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04159237609754068809noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-823573262921448979.post-43014504920499745312011-12-16T12:35:00.003-05:002011-12-16T12:44:54.018-05:00Testing Treatments: Building a culture of evidence in public policyBrett Keller, MPA<br /><br />Back in September the <span style="font-style: italic;">New York Times</span> <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/08/health/research/08stent.html">reported</a> on an unexpected finding from a clinical trial: “A promising but expensive device to prop open blocked arteries in the brain in the hope of preventing disabling or fatal strokes failed in a rigorous study.” Many promising medical innovations fall short when they finally reach clinical trials, but this story was unusual because the stents had already been approved by the FDA under a so-called humanitarian exemption. The FDA approved the stents to reduce the risk of stroke, but those who received it had twice as many strokes.<br /><br />How did this happen? The <span style="font-style: italic;">Times</span> chronicled experts’ puzzlement: “Researchers said the device seemed as if it should work.” And Joseph Broderick, a prominent neurologist, is quoted as saying “Quite frankly, the results were a surprise.” Researchers are delving into this case to discover why the stent failed, but policymakers from all fields should take it as a valuable lesson. This is one more argument for testing policies whenever possible: not only does expert opinion sometimes get things wrong, but without good data there is often no way to really know when they are right.<br /><br />Similar lessons can be gleaned from the history of surgical response to breast cancer. In <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Emperor-All-Maladies-Biography-Cancer/dp/1439107955"><span style="font-style: italic;">The Emperor of All Maladies</span></a> (2010), a new history of cancer, oncologist Siddhartha Mukherjee chronicles the history of such failed interventions as the radical mastectomy. Over a period of decades this brutal procedure – removing the breasts, lymph nodes, and much of the chest muscles – became the tool of choice for surgeons treating breast cancer. In the 1970s rigorous trials comparing radical mastectomy to more limited procedures showed that this terribly disfiguring procedure did not in fact help patients live longer at all. Some surgeons refused to believe the evidence – to believe it would have required them to acknowledge the harm they had done. But eventually the radical mastectomy fell from favor; today it is quite rare. Many similar stories are included in a free e-book titled <a href="http://www.testingtreatments.org"><span style="font-style: italic;">Testing Treatments</span></a> (2011).<br /><br />As a society we’ve come to accept that medical devices should be tested by the most rigorous and neutral means possible, because the stakes are life and death for all of us. Thousands of people faced with deadly illnesses volunteer for clinical trials every year. Some of them survive while others do not, but as a society we are better off when we know what actually works. For every downside, like the delay of a promising treatment until evidence is gathered properly, there is an upside – something we otherwise would have thought is a good idea is revealed not to be helpful at all.<br /><br />Under normal circumstances most new drugs are weeded out as they face a gauntlet of tests for safety and efficacy required before FDA licensure. The stories of the humanitarian-exemption stent and the radical mastectomy are different because these procedures became more widely used before there was rigorous evidence that they helped, though in both cases there were plenty of anecdotes, case studies, and small or non-controlled studies that made it look like they did. This haphazard, post-hoc testing is analogous to how policy in many other fields, from welfare and education, is developed. Many public policy decisions have considerable impacts on our livelihoods, education, and health. Why are we note similarly outraged by poor standards of evidence that leads to poor outcomes in other fields?<br /><br />A recent example from New York City helps illustrate how helpful good evidence can be in shaping policy. A few years ago Mayor Michael Bloomberg <a href="http://gothamschools.org/2011/03/07/study-75m-teacher-pay-initiative-did-not-improve-achievement">rolled out a massive program</a> that seemed to make a lot of sense: pay teachers bonuses based on their students’ performance. The common sense proposal was hailed as “transcendent” and gained the support of the teachers’ union. It cost $75 million, and it didn’t work. How do we know? The program was designed from the beginning as a pilot where schools were randomly assigned to the program or to a control group, and the research showing that the program had no effect on outcomes was subsequently <a href="http://www.manhattan-institute.org/html/cr_56.htm">published</a>. What would have happened if this policy had been put in place without an effective evaluation plan? In all likelihood New York officials would now be touting its success at conferences and urging other cites to implement similar programs. Instead it was quietly shelved. That this particular program did not have the intended effect is disappointing, but it is much better than if we believed it worked and continued on unaware.<br /><br />The pros and cons of randomized trials have been discussed here on <span style="font-style: italic;">14 Points</span> before – see recent posts by <a href="http://wws14points.blogspot.com/2011/09/random-control-trials-on-trial.html">Jake Velker</a> and <a href="http://wws14points.blogspot.com/2011/11/vying-with-velker-rcts-reconsidered.html">Shawn Powers</a>. The cases I presented here are ones where the results were not “no-brainers” at all, and without systematic evaluation bad policies would have been or tragically were put in place. While good evidence does not have to come from randomized trials, there are still many areas where they are underused. In areas where they are feasible (i.e. not macroeconomics) such evidence should be the norm, and those who implement policies with great optimism but without planning for thoughtful evaluation should be panned. Even without random assignment of the treatment, the best policy evaluations should involve a serious attempt to estimate the counterfactual: what would have happened in the absence of the intervention. Moving beyond arguments over specific programs and whether they work, policymakers can move us towards better outcomes by creating a culture where strong evidence is valued. After all, the clinical trial as we know it in medicine is a 20th century innovation; it hasn’t always been this way.14 Pointshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04159237609754068809noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-823573262921448979.post-17688370065916807852011-12-16T12:27:00.005-05:002011-12-16T12:56:42.999-05:00Establishing an Enduring Peace: A way forward in Darfur<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:compatibility> <w:breakwrappedtables/> <w:snaptogridincell/> <w:wraptextwithpunct/> <w:useasianbreakrules/> <w:dontgrowautofit/> <w:usefelayout/> </w:Compatibility> <w:browserlevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:latentstyles deflockedstate="false" latentstylecount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if !mso]><object classid="clsid:38481807-CA0E-42D2-BF39-B33AF135CC4D" id="ieooui"></object> <style> st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } </style> <![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} </style> <![endif]--> <p class="MsoNormal"><span style=""></span></p>Joshua Owens, MPA<br /><br /><br />For over five years, peace talks between Darfur rebel groups and the Government of Sudan <span style="">(GoS) have failed to yield a substantive agreement. Low-level fighting and lawlessness continues, and recent developments indicate a potential relapse into serious conflict. Over the summer major clashes erupted along the North-South border between GoS and Southern-aligned groups (the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement – North, or SPLM-N) in Kordofan, which was not allowed to secede with the rest of South Sudan. In November SPLM-N and the main Darfur rebel groups, the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA) and the Justice for Equality Movement (JEM), united to establish the “Sudanese Liberation Front,” with the aim of launching coordinated military attacks across Sudan and forcefully overthrowing the Bashir regime. According to a recent International Crisis Group report, “...the growing war on multiple fronts poses serious dangers for the country, for its future relationship with the Republic of South Sudan and for the stability of the region as a whole."</span><span style=""><br /><br />To build enduring peace, <b style="">the international community must first realize that the current mediation strategy of facilitating negotiations between insurgent groups and the GoS is fundamentally flawed. Peace talks have failed because they have neglected (1) traditional tribal leaders and (2) building civil society</b>. My reflections are based on my two-year experience as a development program manager in rebel-held territory in the heart of Darfur – near the fighting lines between Darfuri rebels and GoS forces (together with their Janjaweed allies). While there, I worked on a UNDP project to study and address root causes of ongoing conflict and recognized these pitfalls in the peace-building process.</span><b><span style=""><br /><br /></span></b><span style="font-weight: bold;">1. Breakdown of the Traditional Leadership Structure</span><span style=""><br />According to local accounts, a strong tribal leadership structure facilitated relatively stable relations between African and Arab tribes in Darfur for decades before the war. Tribal elders led this structure, and it provided the mechanism for maintaining the balance of power equilibrium between tribes and mediating occasional conflicts.</span><span style=""><br /><br />However, during the 1990s, a new group of young, political activists emerged from the African tribes (Fur, Zaghawa, and Masalit) to protest their enduring socio-economic marginalization under Arab hegemony from Khartoum. As this group (Sudanese Liberation Movement or SLM/SLA) amassed support from neighboring Chad and the people in the isolated tribal areas of Darfur, the balance of power shifted from legitimate tribal elders to young insurgent leaders.</span><span style=""><br /><br />When the SLM finally militarized and attacked Sudanese Armed Forces in early 2003, the GoS responded by arming Arab tribes in Darfur and authorizing them to eradicate African tribes. This intervention further disrupted the delicate balance of power that had long existed between Darfuri tribes.</span><span style=""><br /><br />Nevertheless, peace talks are framed primarily as a negotiation between the GoS and rebel groups. Though these insurgents purport to represent the best interests of the African tribes, their primary concern is their own survival. SLA and JEM present unreasonable demands in peace talks and perpetuate the conflict because peace would deprive these young, zealous rebels of their <i>raison d’être</i> and the basis of their authority. Rebel groups continue to wield considerable power and maintain popular support only because local populations are wholly dependent on them for protection.</span><span style=""><br /><br />Therefore, effective peace negotiations and reconciliation must also engage the traditional tribal leaders. These elders are the only legitimate representatives of the best interests of the tribes, and their continued exclusion will undermine any settlement attempt.</span><span style=""><br /><br /></span><b><span style="">2. Shoring Up Civil Society</span></b><span style=""><br />Second, in order to facilitate long-term peace-building, the international community must help these areas build strong, village-level civil society institutions. According to conventional social science definitions, civil society is the space that (a) exists between the family and the state, (b) connects different families and individuals, and (c) is independent of the state. (Varshney 2001) Civil society organizations are modern and voluntary and generally take the form of cultural, social, economic, or political associations. For example, in Darfuri villages, we attempted to establish agricultural extension networks, community water and health committees, women’s trade groups, and English classes.</span><span style=""><br /><br />Most scholars of conflict agree that civil society play an important role in mitigating violence because these associations connect people from diverse backgrounds, build trust and reciprocity, and facilitate the exchange of view on public issues. In Darfur, building civil society now is vital for peace-building for two reasons: First, civilian-led organizations will help offset the power and voice of armed rebel groups and promote the legitimate leadership of civilian tribal leaders. Second, these organizations can facilitate the ethnic reconciliation process in Darfur by gradually establishing links with civil society groups in rival tribes with similar interests.<br /><br /></span><b>Conclusion</b><br />Taken together, these steps will help resolve the impasse of negotiations over Darfur. Though international attention has shifted in the past year to the plight of South Sudan, this lingering crisis in the country is no less important.14 Pointshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04159237609754068809noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-823573262921448979.post-3102934236524323502011-12-08T16:30:00.001-05:002011-12-08T18:53:19.081-05:00Occupy Wall Street: Occupying the public discourseLaura Noonan, MPA<br /><br /><br />Since the inception of Occupy Wall Street (OWS) in September, critics and commentators have questioned both the motives and tactics of the populist movement. Perhaps the most common objection is that OWS protestors have failed to focus on a single, unifying demand. To be sure, their concerns are broad, and even at times seemingly conflicting. Issues that have been voiced include protesting social and economic inequality, high unemployment, corporate greed and corruption, and the undue influence of corporations – especially financial services firms – on the political process.<br /><br />The fact is, their demands are far from simple. While some are fairly tangible (e.g. more progressive tax policies), others (like reducing the influence of Wall Street and corporations on the political process) are much more complex, requiring the overall of deeply-embedded systems.<br /><br />For that reason alone, it was ultimately beneficial for the OWS movement that protestors were recently forced out of Zuccotti Park in New York City and other locations across the country. While an aggressive tactic such as ”occupation” was perhaps necessary to draw initial attention to their cause, over time it was bound to became a war of attrition, one that would be nearly impossible for the protestors to win given the lack of clear solutions to the issues they are protesting.<br /><br />Semi-permanent encampments also require intense dedication from protestors, tending to draw a higher proportion of the more extreme (less understood, more easily attacked) supporters, while potentially scaring more moderate compatriots away. I, for instance, care deeply about economic and social inequality, but chose for various reasons not to join the protests. To be ultimately successful, the movement of the 99% must gain more support from the 99% of Americans they claim to represent.<br /><br />In addition, to make changes within our current political system, the movement would be wise to make the distinction that they are protesting against policies which serve to protect the rich at the expense of the rest of us, not the rich themselves. Warren Buffett, who has come out against regressive tax policies, should serve as an example that the wealthiest 1% of Americans are not always the enemy.<br /><br />The OWS movement does seem to be moving towards more mainstream acceptance, and is now publicly supported by a coalition of more than 70 liberal organizations, including MoveOn.org, several large labor unions, and Planned Parenthood, as well as hundreds of prominent and influential individuals. This could help to provide additional resources, legitimize the movement, and ultimately force a prioritization of demands.<br /><br />It remains to be seen, however, whether the Occupy Wall Street movement will be able to have the electoral impact needed to achieve many of their stated goals. The Tea Party, a similarly ambitious and unfocused movement, was able to successfully attract candidates to run on a platform representing the movement, and to shift mainstream Republicans’ campaigns in an effort to please Tea Party constituents.<br /><br />While the long-term impact of the OWS movement is still unclear, it has in many ways already been successful, primarily by starting to reframe the public discourse on inequality.<br /><br />The top 1% of the individuals in the American economy take home 25% of total income, and own 40% of the wealth. <a href="http://www.people.hbs.edu/mnorton/norton%20ariely%20in%20press.pdf">Research</a> has shown that most Americans support a much more equal distribution of resources, but are also optimistically ignorant of the level of inequality that currently exists. But this may be changing as more and more attention is drawn to the issue. The term “income inequality” is <a href="http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1111/Occupy_Wall_Street_is_winning.html">appearing more and more frequently</a> in the media, rising from 90 mentions in the week before the protests started to nearly 500 by mid-November.<br /><br />And while most Americans still think of the United States as a land of opportunity, a 2006 <a href="http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2006/04/b1579981.html">report</a> from the Center for American Progress showed that among high-income countries, only the United Kingdom has a lower rate of intergenerational economic mobility than the United States. For example, children from low-income families in the US have only a 1% chance of reaching the top 5% of the income distribution, versus children of the rich, who have about a 22% chance of doing so. Simply bringing awareness to the current reality has the power to subtly change public opinion that may be based on rosier assumptions.<br /><br />Getting Americans to understand current social and economic inequalities of opportunity would be an important accomplishment. Whether policies ultimately change to prevent them, however, will depend on whether the country as a whole decides that they no longer find them acceptable.14 Pointshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04159237609754068809noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-823573262921448979.post-84551831510141557372011-12-08T16:15:00.003-05:002011-12-09T15:18:57.309-05:00A Self-Defense Mission Abroad: Enhancing Japanese peacekeeping forces in South Sudan and beyondAtsuko Tsuda, MPA<br /><br /><br />This January, about 300 Japanese Ground Self Defense Forces (JGSDF) will arrive in South Sudan to join the ongoing United Nations Peacekeeping Operation (PKO) there. Security challenges are mounting in this newborn country; accordingly, local leaders as well as their international friends face daunting tasks. Stepping up to face these challenges head-on, Japan can turn this PKO mission into a pivotal opportunity to further advance its commitment to peace and stability in the region and to make headway in synergizing the 3Ds – diplomacy, development, and defense – in its foreign policy.<br /><br />Two months after Japan established diplomatic relations with South Sudan on July 9th, <a href="http://wws14points.blogspot.com/2011/10/leadership-merry-go-round-mystery.html">newly-minted</a> Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda announced Japan’s new commitments to South Sudan at his debut at the UN General Assembly. As a start, Japan sent two JGSDF personnel as staff officers of the United Nations Mission in the Republic of South Sudan (UNMISS) Headquarters in November at the UN’s request. Japan is now preparing to dispatch JGSDF’s engineering unit to Juba, the capital, next year. These efforts are commendable and the government should continue to expand its defense commitment in South Sudan and around the world.<br /><br />Dispatching more defense forces is an excellent opportunity for Japan to further contribute internationally by combining two areas in which it already excels – Official Development Assistance (ODA) and PKOs. JICA, Japan’s aid implementation organization, has an outstanding presence in South Sudan and has long been contributing to nation-building in the country. But as impressive as Japanese diplomacy and development currently is, expanding its defense efforts could create true co-equal synergies across these components of international assistance.<br /><br />Japan’s Self Defense Force (SDF) has a high reputation both inside and outside Japan. Domestically, SDF increased its public support through its work following the Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake in 1995, and it played a critical role during this year’s natural disaster in the Tohoku area. Regarding international cooperation, the SDF is renowned for its fine-tuned and local-oriented approach, and its engineering units in particular have received special commendation. The technical training provided by Japan’s engineering units is highly regarded and the units are well-known for their diligence and politeness. SDF units have been sent to PKOs in Cambodia, Timor-Leste (East Timor), the Golan Heights, Haiti, and Mozambique.<br /><br />Granted, in Japan there are legitimate concerns about sending an expanded contingent of SDF to South Sudan. SDF’s operations are constrained by the Constitution – which renounces the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes – and other relevant laws. The 1992 law on Peacekeeping Operations prohibits “the use of force” and constrains the use of small weapons to the minimum: Self-Defense officials may use stipulated weapons “within the limits judged reasonably necessary according to the circumstances, when reasonable grounds are found for the <span style="font-style: italic;">unavoidable necessity to protect the lives of others or prevent bodily harm to themselves, other SDF Personnel or Corps Personnel who are with them on the scene, or individuals who have come under their control during the performance of duties</span>” (emphasis mine).<br /><br />Let me paint you a picture as to what this truly means at the operational level. Suppose SDF personnel are facing a heavily-armed group. There is an imminent threat, but they are not allowed to fire immediately. Instead, they have to follow a four-level procedure: oral warning, warning shots, point-blank shots, and only then, finally, sharpshooting.<br /><br />Yet despite the constraints that the SDF bears, Japan has been seeking to extend its support in the areas of nation-building and PKOs wherever possible. This is a welcome development and should be continued. On the whole, the Japanese public supports Japan’s contribution to PKOs; a public opinion poll conducted last year shows more than 85% of respondents supported the idea that Japan’s cooperation to PKOs should increase or at least remain at the current level. The international community also expects further contributions from Japan, not only because it is the third largest economy but also because of its good work.<br /><br />There are three UN peacekeeping operations between the two Sudanese republics: UNAMID in Darfur, UNISFA in Abyei, and UNMISS in South Sudan. This not only represents the war-torn history of the two countries but also the attention granted to it by the international community. Although Juba is relatively calm, the border area is still haunted by a possibility of a full-scale war. Therefore, while an ever-growing presence of SDF may be good both for Japan and South Sudan, given the security concerns and the Japanese forces’ severe restrictions, a careful examination of some clauses of the Japanese PKO Act may be necessary to truly fulfill its higher mission.<br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Atsuko Tsuda is a foreign service officer for the government of Japan. This piece represents the personal observations and opinions of the author. It does not reflect the views, nor represent an official position, of the government of Japan.</span>14 Pointshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04159237609754068809noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-823573262921448979.post-90825666066726903362011-12-08T16:00:00.001-05:002011-12-08T17:31:47.913-05:00The World’s Only Secretariat for PhilanthropyHeather Lord, MPP ’11 <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Dan Hymowitz</p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"> </p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">In America, the debate lumbers on about the best way to coordinate the philanthropic sector and the US government. Meanwhile, one post-conflict West African country has jumped right in – <span style=""> </span>the <a href="http://www.supportliberia.com/">Liberia Philanthropy Secretariat</a> is the fruit of collaboration between recently-reelected President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf and private foundations. It is the world’s only national government office dedicated to engaging private philanthropy.</p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><strong><u><span style="text-decoration: none;"> </span></u></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><strong><u></u></strong></p><span style="font-weight: bold;">THE SCOOP</span> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Launched in April 2009, the Secretariat is a five-person unit housed in the Liberian president’s office, co-financed by six philanthropic organizations.</p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><strong><span style="font-weight: normal;"> </span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><strong><u></u></strong></p><span style="font-weight: bold;">THE MISSION</span> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Expand and improve philanthropic commitment to Liberia.</p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><strong><span style="font-weight: normal;"> </span></strong></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><strong><u></u></strong></p><span style="font-weight: bold;">THE BREAKDOWN</span> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><strong><br /></strong></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><strong>1) Is a government Philanthropy Secretariat a good idea?</strong></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"> </p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">Early on, some foundations worried that the Secretariat might become a bureaucratic barrier hindering direct impact funding in Liberia. However, after nearly three years of operation, philanthropist feedback indicates that the Secretariat has proven itself a valuable “on the ground” matchmaker, helping donors connect to trustworthy government and nonprofit contacts, information, and grantees. From the Liberian perspective, the Secretariat has increased philanthropic support and built capacity for entrepreneurial Liberian organizations addressing pressing social problems in their communities. </p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><strong> </strong></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><strong><br /></strong></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><strong>2) What have some achievements and challenges been so far?</strong></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><em> </em></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><em><br /></em></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><em>Achievements: Increased funding, network leverage, donor satisfaction, grantee empowerment</em></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">The Secretariat has facilitated an estimated US$16.4 million in philanthropic giving. But impact is about more than just money – it’s about making connections, identifying and empowering good partners, and developing ideas for social change. The Secretariat has helped facilitate grants from 13 first-time grantmakers in Liberia. Some family foundations say the Secretariat inspired their giving because they know their investments are effectively contributing to priority, high-impact projects. The Secretariat has also engaged the Liberian government and civil society in an educational dialogue about philanthropy, how it works, and how it might help Liberians create long-term, equitable prosperity.</p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><em> </em></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><em><br /></em></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><em>Challenges: Donor coordination, managing expectations</em></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">The Secretariat has tried to foster collaboration between foundations and increase philanthropic alignment with Liberia’s Poverty Reduction Strategy. They’ve had some success with strategic alignment but struggled with intra-foundation collaboration, due in part to the diversity of Liberia’s philanthropic partners. Additionally, local nonprofits had difficulty meeting donor expectations in the face of significant post-conflict human resource and infrastructure challenges (e.g. limited access to roads, computers, internet) and lack of experience with philanthropic practices (e.g. writing grant proposals, generating self-assessment metrics). While there has been progress, patience and flexibility remain essential on all sides. </p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><strong> </strong></p> <p style="text-align: center;" class="MsoNormal"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4QMJnLl9jVf-pgLvwGWFpICie_vm4enj_jeUL4d9Ue5baZcZfugYFztg4X6x_8kWHch2wmO-sn8FdQxE1mKP88GRGT2XEQcmLWjE_DYM37rv8JX-H3W3SyNU66iRfnMog46FiXncTqHSZ/s1600/heatherlord.jpg"><img style="display: block; margin: 0px auto 10px; text-align: center; cursor: pointer; width: 150px; height: 200px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh4QMJnLl9jVf-pgLvwGWFpICie_vm4enj_jeUL4d9Ue5baZcZfugYFztg4X6x_8kWHch2wmO-sn8FdQxE1mKP88GRGT2XEQcmLWjE_DYM37rv8JX-H3W3SyNU66iRfnMog46FiXncTqHSZ/s200/heatherlord.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5683612149987929970" border="0" /></a></p> <p class="wp-caption-text" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; text-align: center;"><span style="font-size:85%;">Solar flashlights in a community in Grand Bassa County, Liberia.</span></p><p class="wp-caption-text" style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><br /></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><strong> </strong></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><strong> </strong></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"><strong>3) Is the Secretariat a viable model for other countries?</strong></p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;"> </p> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt;">As donors and governments in other countries consider a Philanthropy Secretariat or similar coordination mechanism, there are a few pre-conditions which may increase chances of success:</p><ul><li>significant external foundation interest</li><li>appetite from at least a few key government officials to engage foundations</li><li>a senior government official “champion” with credibility in government and donor communities and a sophisticated understanding of philanthropy</li><li>some level of mutual trust between philanthropists and the government</li></ul><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">THE BOTTOM LINE</span><br />The world’s only Secretariat for Philanthropy has been a promising experiment for donors and for Liberia. It is worth keeping an eye on it and exploring what this model might provide in other countries.<br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Heather Lord is a philanthropic strategy consultant and authors the blog www.PhilanthroMeme.com. Dan Hymowitz is a former program manager for the Liberia Philanthropy Secretariat. A version of this article was published earlier this month by the Council on Foundations </span><span>RE:Philanthropy</span><span style="font-style: italic;"> blog, and is accessible <a href="http://www.cofinteract.org/rephilanthropy/?p=3695">here</a>.</span><p class="MsoNormal"><i></i></p>14 Pointshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04159237609754068809noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-823573262921448979.post-7607886780643579502011-12-01T23:29:00.003-05:002011-12-02T10:24:28.473-05:00Shuttle Shutdown: The future of US space explorationMadhurita Sengupta, MPA<br /><br />In January 2004, President Bush announced his Vision for Space Exploration, setting forth executive policy that would send us back to the moon and onto Mars. Though it meant that the end of the Shuttle Program – created in 1981 – was imminent, this promise ignited hope and inspiration in those of us who spent their youths dreaming of “slipping the surly bonds of Earth” (to quote Magee by way of Reagan) and setting foot on extraterrestrial soil, while honoring the legacy of those who’ve made space exploration possible.<br /><br />And yet, on February 1, 2010, the fabric of our nation’s space program was effectively rewoven, as President Obama announced a new plan for the future of NASA. Constellation, the program that would take us to the moon and onto Mars, was abruptly cancelled. In its place, a crop of commercial efforts would soon be undertaken to ferry US crew and cargo to the International Space Station, effectively freeing resources for NASA to concentrate on developing the next generation of launch and crew vehicles and advanced technologies for future missions. In the meantime, as predicted, the shuttle program officially ended in August of this year, one month after the final flight of the space shuttle Atlantis. (Currently, without a shuttle program, the Russian Soyuz vehicle is our sole mode of transportation to the Space Station, for which the US pays on the order of $60M per seat.)<br /><br />Many protested Obama’s radically different plan and today, a year and a half after that announcement, NASA sits at a pivotal juncture – one that will determine the future of our nation’s human spaceflight program. The recently passed FY12 budget promised the agency $17B for the fiscal year (which equates to roughly $0.005 per taxpayer), but NASA remains at an impasse. In this budget, Congress has not only cut funding to the commercial efforts, but also attached conditions to this funding contingent on progress made in the development of the next generation launch/crew vehicle, effectively forcing NASA to extend the schedules of both programs, or prematurely choose one commercial provider over another.<br /><br />Regardless of funding allocations, we, as a nation, now have the opportunity to set the course for the future of human space exploration. Never before has NASA been faced with such apathy and lack of support and funding; and yet, it presents the agency and the nation with a challenge to overcome. How can NASA prove to the administration, Congress, the American public, our international partners, and the rest of the world that it is truly capable of pioneering the future of human spaceflight? Moreover, how can NASA demonstrate that investments in science and technology today are apt to yield dividends of various magnitudes for years to come?<br /><br />Since the inception of the US human spaceflight program, countless individuals have devoted their livelihoods to further the cause of exploration, to test the limits of mankind’s knowledge and experience, and to expand the boundaries of our terrestrial existence. NASA has been, is, and forever will remain an agency of people who believe in space exploration. It is a collective group of passionate, dedicated workers who are inspired by the contributions of spaceflight to humanity. It is men and women who were awed by Sputnik, by Neil Armstrong’s first steps, by the first joint Russian-American venture in space, by the space shuttle’s maiden voyage, by the building of the International Space Station, piece by piece, before our eyes and who are still inspired on a daily basis by the feats that they themselves help accomplish. They are motivated by man’s innate desire to achieve the impossible, to paraphrase Kennedy, not because it is easy, but because it is hard.<br /><br />Our nation now has the opportunity to draw on all of our many impressive years of experience and inspire others to not only marvel at our ingenuity and initiative, but to contribute and invest in it. With the end of the shuttle program, we now stand at a crossroads, at which we are fortunate to have the opportunity to honor those who have given their lives to help mankind escape the gravitational bonds that have tethered us to this lustrous planet for centuries, and explore the recesses of the unknown, bit by bit, in order to understand, appreciate, and provide for our species. No matter what path we ultimately take, let us not forget that we are all passionate about many common things; let us not ignore our inner child, who declared his/her desire to become an astronaut at age eight; and all the while, let us honor the legacies of the past, by embracing the possibilities and potential of the future. We owe those who have sacrificed their lives for the advancement of mankind, who accomplished seemingly impossible tasks, at the very least, that much.14 Pointshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04159237609754068809noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-823573262921448979.post-90847378603366298472011-12-01T23:24:00.005-05:002012-01-02T12:00:01.005-05:00A Real Remedy for Youth Unemployment in Saudi Arabia: Scrap "Saudization" and emphasize employment educationMary Svenstrup, MPA<br /><br /><br />The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been relatively unaffected by the Arab Awakening. So far, the government has been able to maintain stability by cracking down on protests while simultaneously providing generous handouts to appease its citizens. Saudi youth, however, are growing increasingly dissatisfied with their government because they cannot find employment. And as recently seen in Egypt, Tunisia, and Yemen, a dissatisfied youth population has proven to be an important factor contributing to instability <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:compatibility> <w:breakwrappedtables/> <w:snaptogridincell/> <w:wraptextwithpunct/> <w:useasianbreakrules/> <w:dontgrowautofit/> <w:usefelayout/> </w:Compatibility> <w:browserlevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:latentstyles deflockedstate="false" latentstylecount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} </style> <![endif]--><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%; font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA">– </span>and, ultimately, regime change.<br /><br />Employment has significant cultural implications in Saudi Arabia and the Arab world: it is an essential prerequisite for marriage and transition to adulthood. Without employment, youth are stuck in social purgatory, feeling restless and unsuccessful. Yet Saudi Arabia has the highest youth unemployment rate in the Middle East and North Africa region excluding Iraq.<br /><br />The Saudi government’s answer to youth unemployment is “Saudization,” a policy that sets employment requirements for Saudi nationals. This policy has been ineffective because it does nothing to address the underlying issue that Saudi graduates do not have the skills demanded by private companies. Furthermore, this policy disincentivizes non-hydrocarbon sector growth, which is critical to create more jobs in the Kingdom. The Saudi government should scrap Saudization and instead focus on education that will build skills for employment.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Structural Barriers to Employment in Saudi Arabia</span><br style="font-weight: bold;">Saudization is an artificial employment requirement that does not address the structural problems with the Saudi economy that contribute to youth unemployment, such as an overreliance on the hydrocarbon sector, a constantly growing social transfer system, and insufficient private sector growth.<br /><br />Saudi Arabia’s economy is largely based on petroleum, but the hydrocarbon sector is not a reliable source of job creation. Oil and gas comprise about 45% of fiscal revenues, 55% of GDP, and 90% of export revenue <!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:worddocument> <w:view>Normal</w:View> <w:zoom>0</w:Zoom> <w:punctuationkerning/> <w:validateagainstschemas/> <w:saveifxmlinvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid> <w:ignoremixedcontent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent> <w:alwaysshowplaceholdertext>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText> <w:compatibility> <w:breakwrappedtables/> <w:snaptogridincell/> <w:wraptextwithpunct/> <w:useasianbreakrules/> <w:dontgrowautofit/> <w:usefelayout/> </w:Compatibility> <w:browserlevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:latentstyles deflockedstate="false" latentstylecount="156"> </w:LatentStyles> </xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 10]> <style> /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt; font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:#0400; mso-fareast-language:#0400; mso-bidi-language:#0400;} </style> <![endif]--><span style="font-size:12.0pt;line-height:115%; font-family:"Times New Roman";mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language:EN-US;mso-fareast-language:EN-US;mso-bidi-language:AR-SA">– </span>yet, the national oil company employs less than 1% of Saudi labor force. The hydrocarbon sector does create a source of revenues for the government’s generous social transfer programs; these programs, however, may not be sustainable, crowed out other social expenditures, and most of all, do nothing to address unemployment. As an example, in lieu of real social reforms, the Saudi government introduced new fiscal initiatives on February 23 and March 18, 2011 to quell domestic protests. Although these types of social transfers may help to immediately pacify the population, the IMF notes that these programs will require oil prices sustained higher than $90 per barrel for the next several years. That may not be sustainable and puts a huge burden on the Saudi government to control oil prices.<br /><br />Given the problems created by reliance on the hydrocarbon sector for employment, the non-hydrocarbon sector of the Saudi economy is critical. This sector, however, has not been able to create enough jobs for Saudis. Over the next five years, the IMF estimates that private sector non-oil GDP will need to grow by 7.5% annually to create a sufficient number of employment opportunities for the domestic population. While Saudization addresses the issue that most private sector jobs are being allocated to more qualified expatriate workers, the policy increases the operating costs of private companies in the Kingdom, thereby reducing incentives for investment and hindering non-hydrocarbon growth. For example, a recent equity research report by EFG Hermes suggested that Saudi companies will meet Saudization requirements in the near term by hiring more Saudis rather than reducing the number of expatriates, given the skills mismatches of Saudi workers. Basically, companies are being forced to increase personnel costs simply to satisfy a legislative mandate.<br /><br />Furthermore, both the appeasement tax and Saudization may have a feedback loop creating more pressure on the government. As Saudis become wealthier and more connected to the rest of the world, their expectations for employment and inclusion in the economy will continue grow. Higher expectations combined with growing dissatisfaction with unfulfilling employment opportunities will further increase the government’s cost of appeasement. Therefore, creating sustainable economic opportunities for its citizens will mitigate the long-run fiscal burden of providing appeasement handouts and remove the need for Saudization, as long as Saudis have the skills necessary to be competitive employees.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">Education for Employment</span><br style="font-weight: bold;">The underlying cause of youth unemployment is that, even with a postsecondary degree, Saudi graduates lack the right skills for jobs in a modern, knowledge-based economy. The Saudi education system itself has flaws, but a main problem is that students choose to study subjects that have no direct linkages to labor markets. For example, in 2008, 40% of university students in Saudi Arabia were concentrating in arts and humanities (versus averages of 20% and 17% in Asia and Latin America, respectively), while only 24% chose to study science or engineering. Furthermore, there is a social stigma against technical and vocational training, and any type of university degree, even one that is very unlikely to lead to employment, is socially viewed as superior.<br /><br />To reduce youth unemployment—and the risk of social instability in the Kingdom—the government ought to at least address skills mismatches by orienting the education system toward private sector employment opportunities. Ideally, Saudi Arabia should scrap Saudization and instead focus on making their graduates competitive employees. Forcing graduates to compete for jobs will ensure that they choose education tracks that are conducive to employment. Additionally, technical and vocational programs should be associated with prestigious universities and fellowships, which would alleviate some of the social stigma of choosing this track. Lastly, the government should adopt a national quality assurance framework to regulate private education companies doing business in the Kingdom to ensure that degrees and certificates are uniform across the country. These changes, paired with continued investments in upgrading the overall education sector, should help to link skill-based post-secondary education with employment opportunities.<br /><br />Encouraging youth to select education for employment will result in more qualified workers that will naturally increase the demand for Saudi workers and ultimately reduce the cost of doing business in the country. The government and the royal family should act quickly on this issue, for their own sake and for the sake of the growing youth population in their kingdom.14 Pointshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04159237609754068809noreply@blogger.com384tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-823573262921448979.post-42703532930306282462011-12-01T23:20:00.002-05:002011-12-01T23:23:33.102-05:00Big Business, Small Hands: Changing child labor laws in US agricultureMegan Corrarino, MPA<br /><br />Imagine a country where twelve-year-old children work twelve-hour days, where wage theft is rampant, and where child workers handle pesticides, operate hazardous machinery, and engage in other dangerous work that contravenes of the International Labor Organization’s Convention 182 on the Worst Forms of Child Labor. In the US, these are the workplace conditions for roughly half a million children currently working on commercial farms. While most forms of child labor are strictly regulated, a farmwork exemption to the Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) allows children to work at younger ages, for longer hours, and under more dangerous conditions than in any other industry in the country.<br /><br />When the FLSA was created in 1938, agricultural lobbyists convinced Congress that applying the same standards to agriculture would spell the end of the rural way of life. But most children working on farms today are not family farmers’ sons and daughters, rising early to milk cows before school or spending summers learning the family business. Most children today work on commercial farms. They are overwhelmingly migrant, poor, and vulnerable. They perform routine tasks for hours on end, leaving them susceptible to repetitive motion injuries, and are often exposed to highly toxic pesticides and other hazards. An average of 104 child agricultural workers die each year, and over 22,000 are injured – a rate more than four times that in other sectors. Sexual harassment and abuse are commonplace. Children employed on farms, like their adult colleagues, work long hours, are not entitled to overtime, and often move in order to follow the growing season. Half of all child agricultural workers never graduate from high school.<br /><br />Current farm labor law fails to protect the rights of children in two ways. First, the laws themselves fail to require reasonable working conditions that respect the dignity of child workers and that provide sufficient support and time for schooling. For example, in addition to allowing children to perform hazardous work, current farm labor laws allow 14- and 15-year old children to work unlimited hours – even during the school year. In any other sector, the same children would be restricted to three hours of work a day on school days and eight hours on other days.<br /><br />Second, agricultural labor laws that do exist are often poorly enforced. Children are particularly vulnerable to rights abuses. The 1983 Migrant and Seasonal Protection Act, for example, guarantees a minimum wage. Although farmers may pay by the pieces picked instead, they are required to make up the difference if that does not reach the set wage. But children often pick on family tickets, making it difficult to determine what they should have been paid and allowing employers to hide the hours worked if children ever try to recover unpaid wages.<br /><br />A proposed Department of Labor rules change, designed to “bring parity between the rules for agricultural employment and the more stringent rules that apply to the employment of children in nonagricultural workplaces,” would, among other things, limit animal and pesticide handling, prevent children under 16 from working on tobacco farms, and restrict operation of power-driven equipment by children under 16. But even these relatively straightforward changes have faced opposition from a wide range of agricultural lobbyists.<br /><br />Given the resistance to even these small changes, comprehensive child labor reform will be a political challenge. But it is nevertheless necessary; child workers in agriculture typically work out of economic necessity and are among our country’s most vulnerable workers. Workplace laws must protect their fundamental human rights.<br /><br />One bundle of suggested reforms, the Children’s Act for Responsible Employment (CARE Act), HR 3564, would apply the same workplace standards to agricultural child workers as are currently applied to others. (It would still include a family farm exemption.) Crucially, because enforcement of labor law is often challenging, particularly in agriculture, it would require better data collection by the Department of Labor and would raise the fines for violations from $11,000 to $15,000 – making employers less willing to take a risk.<br /><br />Advocates for the CARE Act are currently lobbying with a non-traditional coalition of agricultural unions, members of Congress, filmmakers, Hollywood stars, and human rights organizations. Successful advocacy will require continued public mobilization and creative alliance-building – perhaps drawing on coalitions of workers in other informal sectors, or parlaying the growing national interest in food policy to highlight labor practices in the food production chain. As Edward R. Murrow observed in <span style="font-style: italic;">The Harvest of Shame</span>, a 1960 documentary that reflected agricultural working conditions strikingly similar to today’s, “The migrants have no lobby…Maybe we do.”14 Pointshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04159237609754068809noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-823573262921448979.post-38578993598282488892011-11-25T11:38:00.005-05:002011-11-25T11:46:30.058-05:00Empowering Evaluation: Looking beyond the numbers<div></div><span><span>Elizabeth Hoody, MPA</span></span><div><span><span><br /></span></span></div><div><span><span><br />As a former grant-maker, I was glad to see that 14 Points talked about the challenge of evaluating anti-domestic violence work in a <a href="http://wws14points.blogspot.com/2011/05/farewell-to-robertson-thinking-beyond.html">post</a> by Payal Hathi last May. In my own experiences working in a women’s rights foundation, I saw just how difficult it can be to quantify the impact of women’s rights organizing in numerical terms. While numbers can tell an important story (such as how many young women receive sexual and reproductive health education), they often leave out what for me is most compelling about a group’s work. This might be the reflections of an individual young woman who now feels that she can talk to her partner about contraceptives or the story of a group of girls who decided to form their own anti-trafficking student organization after participating in a prevention workshop. So while there are many valid and pressing questions about how to “get the numbers right” in program evaluation, my bigger concern these days is how to evaluate impact beyond the numbers…and then again how to aggregate and share this type of evaluation in a way that donors, policymakers, and peer organizations can easily understand.<br /><br /></span></span></div><div><span><span>In the past year, I have come across several creative examples of evaluation strategies that do attempt to move beyond the numbers. Many of these strategies attempt to articulate, verbally or visually, the systemic impact of an organization’s work. One example is a <a href="http://www.globalfundforwomen.org/impact/building-womens-movements">map</a> that was released by the Global Fund for Women just this past week, which captures the Fund’s impact around the world using bright spots. In the Global Fund’s words, this map “explores where a relationship between Global Fund for Women and grantee groups is more likely to yield a higher movement building impact.” While the map does rely on a series of numerical indicators, the visual analysis tells a bigger story about the collective impact of Global Fund for Women grants on women’s rights movements around the world.<br /><br /></span></span></div><div><span><span>The second example is the <a href="http://www.genderatwork.org/gender-work-framework">Gender At Work Framework</a>, which “helps organizations see their work from new perspectives by combining best practices in organizational development with feminist thought.” One tool that the framework uses is a graph where civil society organizations can plot the different types of social changes they are addressing through their work. The graph places the continuum of “individual versus systemic” change on vertical axis and “formal vs. informal” changes on the horizontal axis, resulting in four quadrants of change:</span></span></div><div><ul><li>Women’s access to resources (quadrant I)</li><li>Women’s and men’s consciousness (quadrant II)</li><li>Informal cultural norms and exclusionary practices (quadrant III)</li><li>Formal institutions, laws, and policies (quadrant IV). </li></ul></div><div>Women’s organizations use the tool to visually represent the changes that they are trying to impact through their work. The graph is also a good indicator of what programs will be easier to quantitatively evaluate (such as programs that work for specific policy changes) and those that will be difficult to track through traditional metrics (how do you measure changes in men’s and women’s consciousness?).</div><div><span><span><br /></span></span></div><div><span><span>What I like most about the Gender At Work Framework is that it encourages grassroots organizations to define evaluation framework themselves at the beginning of their planning processes. When this happens, evaluation shifts from being a chore for donors to being an effective way of tracking and reflecting on an organization’s progress towards its goals. In my personal, unquantifiable opinion, the resulting story more often than not contains richer analysis, more honest reflections, and genuine learning.<br /><br /></span></span></div><div><span><span>For the past year, I have been working on the Advisory Committee of <a href="http://youngfeministfund.org/">FRIDA – The Young Feminist Fund</a>, which is a newly formed foundation that is run for and by young feminist activists. As FRIDA prepares for its first grant-making round, these questions about evaluation are on my mind. How do we tell our story to our first funders and how do we empower the first FRIDA grantees to take ownership over evaluation of their work? Can we be accountable and collaborative in evaluation? As a starting point, we are planning to develop the first grant evaluation process in partnership with FRIDA’s first round of grantees. As we begin to hash out exactly what the process will look like, I am grateful for these new tools that push us towards more creative, dynamic ways of articulating our goals, visions, and impacts.</span></span><div></div></div>14 Pointshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04159237609754068809noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-823573262921448979.post-84928612448363355572011-11-25T11:00:00.010-05:002011-11-27T15:39:26.333-05:00Saving Congress From Itself: Can the Independent Payment Advisory Board make Congress’s Medicare cost control problems go away?<div></div><span><span>David Mitchell, MPA</span></span><div><span><span><br /></span></span></div><div><span><span><br />With the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction – a.k.a., the Super Committee – missing a major deadline this week, the prospects for a debt deal before the next election seem bleaker than ever.</span></span></div><div><span><span><br />Eventually, Congress will have to act. The long-term deficit situation is truly unsustainable and the sequestration trigger agreed upon in August will begin sharply cutting Defense Department programs and Medicare provider payments in January 2013 (assuming Congress and the President allow it to stay in effect).</span></span></div><div><span><span><br />But for those hoping that responsible decision-making on the country’s entitlement and tax programs will materialize after next year’s election, prepare to be disappointed. In particular, Medicare – the public health insurance program for the aged and disabled, and by far the largest contributor to our long-term fiscal mess – has been subject to congressional mismanagement now for years.</span></span></div><div><span><span><br />As Wes Joines pointed out in a <a href="http://www.blogger.com/http://wws14points.blogspot.com/2011/11/new-years-irresolution-medicares.html">post</a> earlier this month, the Medicare physician payment system is broken and has been so for more than a decade. Private insurance carriers that participate in the Medicare Advantage program have been overpaid since 2003, when the Republican-controlled Congress set artificially high payment rates as part of the same bill that expanded subsidized prescription drugs at the government's expense. And members of both parties have proven themselves unable to withstand the temptation of using the Medicare program to steer benefits to special interests. Whether it’s boosting payments to rural hospitals, delaying competitive bidding for durable medical equipment, or shielding beneficiaries from scheduled benefit cuts, there are many recent examples of costly Congressional micromanaging on both sides of the aisle.</span></span></div><div><span><span><br />Underlying this mismanagement is a simple political calculus: members of Congress believe that they must avoid being linked to any policy that will hurt the country’s 47 million Medicare beneficiaries (not to mention the tens of millions more about to join the program) or risk defeat at the polls. Cutting benefits is one obvious no-no, but cutting provider payments is also politically dangerous, since doctors and hospitals may then stop treating Medicare patients or otherwise incite seniors’ anger.</span></span></div><div><span><span><br />So what can be done? One hope is that legislators themselves may be looking for a way out of this Medicare cost-control political vortex, especially given the hard decisions that most political elites know will have to be made as part of an eventual debt reduction deal.</span></span></div><div><span><span><br />One sign of this thinking is Congress’s recent decision to establish an Independent Payment Advisory Board (IPAB) as part of last year’s health reform legislation.[1] The IPAB is designed to take Medicare payment policymaking out of the hands of Congress and put it into the hands of expert technocrats. Though the IPAB was not a major focus of the yearlong debate on health care legislation (Americans were otherwise obsessed with abortion, the public option, and death panels[2]), it may prove to be one of the most consequential provisions included in the ACA. In the <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303338304575155970077562414.html">words</a> of former budget director Peter Orszag, IPAB represents “the largest yielding of sovereignty from the Congress since the creation of the Federal Reserve.”</span></span></div><div><span><span><br />Here’s how it works: A 15-member board appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate will propose sharp cuts to Medicare payments if cost growth in the program continues on its current trajectory. What makes this Board different from past Medicare commissions – or even the current Super Committee – is that the recommended cuts will go into effect unless Congress finds equal savings elsewhere in the program or supermajorities in Congress vote to waive the new rules (and even then only if the president signs the resulting bill). There is concern that future Congresses will not allow themselves to be constrained by these parliamentary hurdles and will try to prevent the cuts by simply not confirming IPAB appointees or passing a new law revoking some or all of IPAB’s powers. But the IPAB provision includes rules to check these congressional urges, so there is reason to believe that IPAB will have teeth.</span></span></div><div><span><span><br />Beyond the technical details, one’s optimism about the Board depends in large part on what one believes is ailing the US health care system. If high prices are the culprit (as <a href="http://content.healthaffairs.org/content/30/9/1647">many</a> on the left believe), IPAB could prove effective at withstanding political pressure from doctors, hospitals, and other providers and keeping prices low. If over-utilization is the main cost driver (as many on the right believe), IPAB’s usefulness will be limited. This is partly by design: currently, the Board can only recommend changes to provider payment rates, not benefits.</span></span></div><div><span><span><br />But many outside experts – including <a href="http://www.fiscalcommission.gov/sites/fiscalcommission.gov/files/documents/TheMomentofTruth12_1_2010.pdf">some</a> who sat on the US Fiscal Commission last year – recommend expanding IPAB’s powers. And the president has <a href="http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/budget/fy2012/assets/jointcommitteereport.pdf">urged</a> Congress to lower IPAB’s cost growth rate target, making it more likely that recommendations will be triggered. Some have even <a href="http://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMp1005402">speculated</a> that IPAB could be the vehicle by which a new all-payer rate setting scheme could be implemented.</span></span></div><div><span><span><br />It’s unlikely that Congress will go along with any of the above proposals any time soon. Indeed, many in Congress have called for IPAB’s repeal. And it’s true that further empowering a board of unelected technocrats is not an easy sell to the American people (especially since the biggest problems facing Medicare – and the federal budget as a whole – require moral, not mathematical, answers). But as the extent of our long-term structural deficit becomes more apparent – and the situation grows more urgent – members of Congress may be tempted to delegate more and more tough decisions to IPAB. Some might view this as an undemocratic and irresponsible abdication of authority – in other words, the coward’s way out. But as Edgar Allan Poe once wrote: “That man is not truly brave who is afraid either to seem or to be, when it suits him, a coward.”</span></span><div><br /></div></div><div><br /></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:85%;">----------------------</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:85%;">Notes</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:85%;"><br /></span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:85%;">[1] The Affordable Care Act also created the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Innovation (CMI), which has broad powers to experiment with new payment systems like accountable care organizations and bundling, and then apply the most successful models nationwide – all without further congressional action. This is a promising idea, but the Congressional Budget Office and others are skeptical of its cost-saving potential and so it will not figure as prominently as IPAB in debt reduction negotiations.</span></div><div><span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-size:85%;"><br /></span></div><div><div><span class="Apple-style-span"><span style="font-size:85%;">[2] Since the bill’s passage, some have used the “death panel” moniker to describe IPAB, but during the debate that phrase was used in reference to a provision that attempted to expand the use of living wills.</span> </span></div></div>14 Pointshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04159237609754068809noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-823573262921448979.post-8135071413809406182011-11-25T10:32:00.000-05:002011-11-25T11:18:17.994-05:0021st Century Slavery: The scourge of human trafficking and how we can fight it<div></div><span><span></span></span><span><span>Elina Sarkisova, MPA</span></span><div><span><span><br /><br /></span></span></div><div><span><span>Human trafficking, although not a new phenomenon, has experienced exceptional growth in the last quarter of the 20th century, becoming one of the fastest growing criminal enterprises in the world. According to the State Department, an estimated 600,0000 to 800,000 men, women, and children are trafficked across international borders each year, the majority being women and children. When accounting for internal trafficking, the number of victims jumps to 12.3 million. Most states have taken steps, both on an individual and collective level, to try to reverse this trend; most noticeably in the form of international legal instruments and national laws aimed at migration controls, crime prevention, and victims’ assistance programs. However, these efforts have proved largely ineffective and are even to blame, in some circumstances, for making matters worse.<br /><br /></span></span></div><div><span><span><b>Why human trafficking is on the rise<br /></b>The competing and often conflicting forces of globalization and national sovereignty help explain the increase in the overall volume of human trafficking. While globalization has brought about unprecedented opportunities for economic growth and prosperity, the results of economic liberalization (a key feature of globalization) have been mixed for developing countries. The swift spread of free markets has led to increased levels of inequality both within and between states and widespread economic instability, thus fostering strong “push” factors in migrants’ countries of origin. Meanwhile, increased demand for cheap labor in developed countries (characterized by a growing ratio of elderly to working-age people), declining birth rates, and high cost of labor, fosters strong “pull” factors.<br /><br /></span></span></div><div><span><span>On the other hand, governments have stepped up efforts to limit the movement of people across their borders, even when such policies are highly inconsistent with national labor market demands. This is usually the result of strong societal resistance to immigration and/or political pressures. Such restrictive immigration policies have the effect of increasing undocumented migration flows. However, trafficking flourishes where an additional factor is present: few opportunities to overcome barriers to <i>illegal</i> migration without the help of a third party. Most trafficking cases start out as voluntary transactions between a potential migrant and a smuggler – an exchange that is usually initiated by the migrant. However, the situation quickly deteriorates upon arrival at the destination country, where the victim often finds himself in a situation of forced labor.</span></span></div><div><span><span><br /><b>National responses to human trafficking and why they haven’t worked<br /></b>States tend to perceive human trafficking through the lens of national security, best addressed through migration controls, crime prevention and victims’ assistance programs. The United States, for instance, has increased border control enforcement along its 2,000-mile border with Mexico over the last two decades. However, strong migratory pressures render such efforts useless at best and counterproductive at worst, contributing to an increasing death toll in the border area and driving increasing numbers of economic migrants to seek the services of unscrupulous migration intermediaries intent on exploiting the gap between labor supply and demand. Law enforcement (e.g. police raids) has also become a key tool in countries’ toolbox for combating human trafficking. However, such efforts simply drive the trade further underground, where victims become more and more isolated and vulnerable to abuse, especially in the case of prostitution. Lastly, while some countries have initiated victims’ assistance programs, efforts have largely been limited to “rescue” operations that offer little in the way of long-term solutions and conditional assistance programs that overlook underlying incentives.</span></span></div><div><span><span><br /></span></span></div><div><span><span><b>A way forward<br /></b></span></span>The human security framework can offer a new, more useful way of conceptualizing an old problem – namely, from the standpoint of the driving forces behind the trade, the mechanisms that facilitate the trade, and the threat that such a trade poses to society. Broadly, policy response should focus on prevention (targeting underlying causes of supply and demand specific to each country), prosecution (law enforcement), and protection (victim assistance programs). Policy options should include, at a minimum:</div><div><ul><li><b>Women, children, and minority empowerment programs</b>: Past projects aimed at the economic empowerment of women have, for instance, tended to be components of broader economic development programs rather than anti-trafficking strategies. Efforts need to be streamlined and incorporated into a broader anti-trafficking strategy.</li></ul><ul><li><b>Immigration reforms</b>: Destination countries should create temporary guest worker programs, perhaps in a more targeted way than some countries have already done, as part of a broader anti-trafficking agenda.</li></ul><ul><li><b>Anti-corruption programs among border patrol officials</b>: Trafficking would not be as widespread were it not for the help of corrupt government officials, especially in border patrol areas, who are complicit in this trade.</li></ul></div><div><span><span>In the end, improving the track record of international anti-trafficking programs will require both structural changes in the manner in which the issue is conceptualized by states and operational changes in the manner in which programs are implemented. Only then could we realistically attempt to end this scourge of the 21st century. </span></span><div><div><br /></div></div></div>14 Pointshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04159237609754068809noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-823573262921448979.post-12678213042576352192011-11-18T00:20:00.003-05:002011-11-18T00:23:38.263-05:00The Dragon has been Domesticated: A benign view on the rise of ChinaAnkit Panda, BA<br /><br />As early as 1941, historian Henry Luce controversially called the 20th century the “American Century.” And today, just 11 years in, many are ready to bestow the 21st century honors to China. In retrospect, one may argue it makes sense to dub the previous century an “American” one because the United States did, in a sense, singlehandedly drive the normative alignment of modern international institutions and norms, albeit only after Luce’s declaration. So China’s impressive growth and greater face on the international stage should cause at least some change, right? Conventional realist wisdom would have us think so, but there is good evidence that the People’s Republic, and the Chinese Communist Party, have neither the interest nor the ability to do so.<br /><br />Under any regime of international law (institutional or treaty-based), states have options to 1) comply with statutes and norms, 2) create statues and norms, and 3) “evade” statutes and norms. Starting with the leadership of Deng Xiaoping, the PRC has moved more from a rule-evading country towards one more interested in complying with existing institutions. Although conventional wisdom and the media might paint a very different picture of Chinese compliance, a quick look at China’s record at the World Trade Organization and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in addition to its response to the 2008 financial crisis, provides strong evidence to believe otherwise.<br /><br />At the IMF, the PRC, once chastised for its stalwart rule-evading (and frankly, rule-ignoring) behavior, has moved towards greater compliance. While the ongoing Article IV consultations on China’s controversial monetary policy and the depreciation of the renminbi remain a source of friction, notably, Chinese rhetoric in defense of this policy emphasizes mutual interests (between the West and China) and demonstrates a real stake in the continued “success” of the global financial system. Similarly, China’s reaction to the financial crisis in 2008 was swift and in line with systematic recommendations from the IMF and the US – a $580 billion asset-relief program similar to TARP in the US. Furthermore, Chinese support of the Eurozone during its sovereign debt woes demonstrates a further willingness to take a stake in the success of the status quo (although this final point may be more politically-motivated than I’m willing to admit in this short post).<br /><br />The PRC’s short history at the WTO so far also demonstrates a mixed compliance record trending towards greater compliance over the years. Initially, Chinese accession encountered several obstacles, but it ultimately managed to convince the organization that without China, the WTO wasn’t truly a “world” trade organization. The WTO is struggling with China, which, as a mechanically-complex economy based on a particular set of normative principles, refuses in several cases to acquiesce to the exogenous and incompatible norms of the institution. On the other hand, China's victory over the European Union in a December 2010 case demonstrates an example of Chinese rule-taking and compliance with the WTO. Granted, this paints China as a rule-taker when the rules enforce its self-interest. Such victories come at the cost of leverage for the West, but bring with them greater Chinese stakes in the success of the rules-based order. The liberal international order is slowly beginning to accommodate China.<br /><br />While experts like Robert Kaplan and C. Fred Bergsten may identify the many political and security threats that result from a stronger China, it’s important to consider the less-exciting but equally important economic perspective. It’s difficult to say definitively that there is one lens through which we should view China – frankly that would be an oversimplification – but overall, it’s important to recognize that China has been accommodated into the current system of international political economy and that this accommodation has made it an important stakeholder in the success of that system. Unfortunately for the US, even the liberal international order will move us away from the “American Century” towards a more complex and multi-polar global order.14 Pointshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04159237609754068809noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-823573262921448979.post-84311913155237710242011-11-18T00:12:00.008-05:002011-11-18T15:29:53.903-05:00Game Changer: Israel’s new calculus on attacking IranJordan Reimer, MPA<br /><br /><br />After a long hiatus, there is renewed international focus on Iran’s nuclear program, from hyperventilating <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/04/world/middleeast/israel-is-scrambling-over-news-reports-of-seeking-iran-strike.html">Israeli media reports</a> last month on an imminent attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities to the recent release of an unprecedented International Atomic Energy Agency <a href="http://lewis.armscontrolwonk.com/files/2011/09/IAEA_GOV_54.pdf">report</a> pointing to Iranian activities “relevant to the development of a nuclear device.”<br /><br />In the international debate on what to do about Iran’s nuclear ambitions, for those who advocate taking military action against the Islamic Republic the conventional wisdom has settled on Israel doing the world’s dirty work – as it did against Iraq in 1981 and Syria in 2007. Those who oppose Iran's nuclear activities but are still circumspect of this course of action advance a counterargument that falls essentially along two lines of thought: logistical infeasibility and geopolitical inadvisability.<br /><br />The first contention details several obstacles: a) the vast geographic distance between Iran and Israel, b) the fact that Iranian nuclear sites are dispersed throughout the country (a lesson learned no doubt from Iraq’s vulnerability), c) the reality that such sites are situated in hardened bunkers located either underground or deep inside mountain ranges, and d) the possible existence of secret sites unknown to Israeli and American intelligence.<br /><br />A successful action plan would therefore mandate continuous multi-sortie strikes over several parts of the country by Israeli fighter jets. (Israel does have a <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/02/us-israel-missile-idUSTRE7A11BR20111102">long-range missile program</a>, but such a weapon is inappropriate for precision strikes.) However, an attack of this sort would soon fall susceptible to advanced Iranian anti-aircraft capabilities. Israeli airplanes would therefore be limited to execute only a quick once-over before returning home. And, in light of Israel’s <a href="http://ibnlive.in.com/generalnewsfeed/news/israel-to-release-1027-prisoners-for-its-lone-soldier/854824.html">deep concern</a> for the lives of its soldiers, given the distance between Jerusalem and Tehran a viable plan would require mid-air refueling to guarantee the pilots’ safe return, a near impossibility considering the non-hospitable airspace Israel must traverse to reach Iran.<br /><br />With all of these constraints, even if Israel did successfully pull off this type of limited mission, it would hardly improve Israel’s national security: experts assume Israel would set back Iranian efforts only a few years at the most. If anything, it would be merely a strategic victory, signaling the resolve behind Israel’s rhetoric and indicating its sincere desperate determination to prevent Iran from going further in its nuclear work.<br /><br />For all of these reasons, an Israeli attack with potential to severely cripple Iranian nuclear ambitions was largely considered a fantasy.<br /><br />No longer. On February 21st, 2010, Israel Aerospace Industries <a href="http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/military/planes-uavs/4346921">unveiled</a> a new unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), the Heron TP, nicknamed “Eitan.” Able to fly at medium-to-high altitudes for over 20 hours while carrying a variety of payloads, equipped with a silent engine ensuring stealth, and significantly, capable of reaching Iran, the drone relieves Israeli military logisticians of concerns regarding refueling and the safety of its airmen against anti-aircraft artillery. The drones could be mass-produced and then flown incessantly until all Iranian nuclear sites are obliterated. Even if the drones are shot down, it would come at a relatively modest cost (the price tag might be steep but it would be infinitely better than an Israeli soldier in Tehran’s hands). The UAVs could be equipped with self-detonation devices should they be captured to avoid Iran gaining insight into Israeli military technology.<br /><br />Importantly, the second line of reasoning against an attack – geopolitical considerations – remains unchanged: bombing Iran is still a terrible idea. It will indefinitely delay the moribund Middle East peace process, inflame the Arab and Muslim world against the US at a time when it has a legitimate chance to turn over a new leaf, force a wedge between both US-Israel and US-Arab/US-Muslim relations, and almost certainly provoke Hezbollah and possibly Hamas to launch retaliatory attacks against the Israeli civilian populace. Not least, it could conceivably convince Iran to finally declare its intention for a nuclear weapon as a deterrent against future Israeli aggression, a stand which it has consistently refused to take.<br /><br />To (mis)quote Rudy Giuliani, “The use of military force against Iran would be very dangerous. It would be provocative.” Yes. And it shouldn’t be done. (Though it’s outside the purview of this article, let me at least acknowledge that though there is no silver bullet, a healthy mix of sanctions, coalition-building, and containment should be sufficient to keep Iran at bay, should it develop the dreaded weapon.)<br /><br />The revelation of the “Eitan,” then, is both a blessing and a curse. On the positive side it signals to Iran Israel’s credible conventional deterrent against development of a bomb (no doubt why the UAV’s unveiling was so public), which might induce the ayatollahs to rethink any potential attempts to acquire such a weapon. And yet, on the other hand, it removes the only barrier that Israel’s security hawks faced in their myopic and monomaniacal desire to carry out a strike on Iran. We can only hope that cooler heads prevail and the remaining reasons buttressing the argument not to attack remain foremost in the minds of Israeli policymakers and American interlocutors.14 Pointshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04159237609754068809noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-823573262921448979.post-68166915859934252772011-11-18T00:10:00.000-05:002011-11-18T00:19:26.123-05:00Non-Communicable Diseases: The Sword of the Damocles for developing countriesSiddharth Chatterjee, MPP ’11<br />Dr. Ayham Alomari<br /><br /><br />Thanks to the excellent work done by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the World Health Organization (WHO), the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI), the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, governments, and other institutions to ramp up immunization for vaccine-preventable diseases, it is having the desired effect in reducing infant and child mortality. This important initiative has to be kept up and would contribute greatly to achieving the UN’s Millennium Development Goals by 2015.<br /><br />But there is another threat that looms like the Sword of the Damocles: non-communicable diseases (NCDs) such as cardiovascular, cancer, diabetes, and lung diseases. To some extent, of course, the increasing prevalence of NCDs is an arithmetic consequence of reducing morbidity and mortality from communicable diseases. If people do not suffer and die from communicable diseases, they typically will die from an NCD. The tragedy, however, is that humans around the world suffer and die from NCDs <span style="font-style: italic;">prematurely</span>, long before the natural limit to which modern medicine and non-medical interventions, including community-based efforts, can push the onset of suffering and the occurrence of death. In addition, the high burden of NCDs makes them a laden threat to health and development. NCDs are barriers to poverty reduction, health equity, economic stability, and human security.<br /><br />A recent issue of the Economist states: “Indeed, of the 36m people killed by NCDs [annually], some 80% live in low- and middle-income countries. These diseases are associated with increased prosperity and longevity, and the results are costly. The World Economic Forum estimates that NCDs will cost low- and middle-income countries $7 trillion over the next 15 years.”<br /><br />The most striking feature of NCDs is that, contrary to what most people think, it’s not just the rich that are feeling the damaging effects of physical inactivity, obesity, and poor diets. Far from it, the poor and middle class within the developing world are facing NCDs-related deaths exponentially. According to the statistics above, each day there are 100,000 deaths from NCDs, with 80% occurring in the world’s poorest countries. And unless we act collectively and with conviction the future looks ominous. According to WHO, NCD deaths are projected to increase by 15% globally between 2010 and 2020.<br /><br />With the lives of 36 million people annually at stake, we all know what it takes to prevent NCDs – healthy lifestyles. NCDs could be preventable by eliminating shared risk factors such as tobacco use, unhealthy diet, physical inactivity, and harmful use of alcohol. Those risk factors are the main contributors to the magnitude and scale of NCDs worldwide. But many hurdles stand in our way, most stemming from a lack of urgency as well as political will to deal with this growing scourge.<br /><br />To find ways to engage broader community involvement in NCDs, prevention through dialogue and concrete action were the topic of an <a href="http://www.ifrc.org/en/news-and-media/meetings-and-events/united-nations-high-level-meeting-on-noncommunicable-diseases1/">event</a> co-hosted by the IFRC and the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association (IFPMA) at this year’s UN General Assembly in September. The panelists – who represented leaders among Red Cross Red Crescent National Societies, WHO, the private sector, and academia (including the active participation of two prominent members of Princeton University) – reinforced the call for integrated multi-sector and multi-partner NCD prevention initiatives.<br /><br />Greg Vickery, President of the Australian Red Cross, shared his experience in working with Indigenous Australians, who are among the most vulnerable to NCDs. “Our response is threefold – through the ‘Save-a-Mate’ resuscitation and education program tackling the alcohol problem they face; breakfast clubs that teach school children healthy eating habits; and the ‘Food Cents Programme’ that shows families how to eat healthily on a tight budget, i.e. simple strategies to support healthy eating habits.” Professor Uwe Reinhardt, James Madison Professor of Political Economy at the Woodrow Wilson School, reminded the audience that part of this community-based effort must be to make the individual be both able and willing to play an active role in the management of his or her own health.<br /><br />So basically, the message we want to stress is simple. Says IFRC’s Secretary General, Mr. Bekele Geleta, “Humanitarian organizations such as the Red Cross Red Crescent, whose staff and close to 13 million active volunteers world-wide work closely with local communities, play an enormous role in bringing about changes in behavior and attitudes towards health and lifestyle.” We at the IFRC strongly believe that including NCDs in our health programs is consistent with our <a href="https://www.ifrc.org/en/who-we-are/vision-and-mission/strategy-2020">Red Cross Red Crescent Strategy 2020</a> to enable healthy and safe living. Our Framework for NCDs focuses on prevention, innovation & research, monitoring & evaluation, partnership, and advocacy.<br /><br />But we cannot do it in silos or on our own. To make a real difference for those who are not on a health services radar screen, it is critical that we forge robust partnerships not only with governments, the UN, and NGOs but also with important thought leaders and opinion leaders like Princeton University. This has to be a collective and well-orchestrated endeavour to prevent what the UN has called “a public health emergency in slow motion” from spreading. Simple lifestyle change is the key. Resources – intellectual and financial, as well as partners from the public and private sectors alike – need to come together.<br /><br />The IFRC is keen to move forward on this important initiative. In the words of Professor Reinhardt, “One thinks of the Red Cross Red Crescent more in connection with earthquakes, tsunamis, and other spectacular and sudden natural disasters. I was surprised and encouraged to learn how much the organization is doing in response to another, albeit slowly developing, natural disaster, the growing burden of premature deaths due to NCDs, much of that burden the result of people’s inability or unwillingness, or both, to manage their own health better.”<br /><br />The actions, then, appear to be simple, and the outcomes desirable. But it will take a significant investment of time and money to strengthen the ties that bind the Sword above us.<br /><br /><object width="560" height="315"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/6VXZsC6ohAI?version=3&hl=en_US&rel=0"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/6VXZsC6ohAI?version=3&hl=en_US&rel=0" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="560" height="315"></embed></object><br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;"><a href="http://www.linkedin.com/pub/siddharth-chatterjee/3b/a12/175">Siddharth Chatterjee</a> is the Chief Diplomatic Officer and Head of International Relations at the IFRC</span><span style="font-style: italic;">. <a href="http://ch.linkedin.com/pub/ayham-alomari/41/a72/101">Dr. Ayham Alomari</a> is a Senior Health Officer, Community Based Health and First Aid, NCDs at the IFRC.<br /></span>14 Pointshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04159237609754068809noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-823573262921448979.post-50176225098589240402011-11-11T13:12:00.003-05:002011-11-11T13:23:02.085-05:00Vying with Velker: RCTs reconsideredShawn Powers, MPA ’11<br /><br /><br />In “<a href="http://wws14points.blogspot.com/2011/09/random-control-trials-on-trial.html">Randomized Controlled Trials on Trial</a>,” Jake Velker proposes several reasons to be skeptical of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) as a method of program evaluation. While Jake makes some good points, as a “randomista” I think the picture he paints of the RCT movement is far too pessimistic. I will consider each of his arguments in turn.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">1. External validity</span><br />Jake first takes up the critique, championed by Princeton’s Angus Deaton, that RCTs suffer from external validity problems—in other words, the results of an evaluation may not generalize well to other contexts. While the criticism is frequently leveled at RCTs, the question of external validity applies to all empirical work. In general, I find these discussions about the differences between Deaton and RCT proponents a bit overblown. Perhaps this is because everyone loves a good spat between high-profile intellectuals (see also: <a href="http://conservationfinance.wordpress.com/2006/08/23/foreign-aid-sachs-versus-easterly">Sachs and Easterly</a>). In reality, according to the <a href="http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/05/17/100517fa_fact_parker">profile</a> of Esther Duflo in The New Yorker that Jake references, Deaton has described his criticisms “as more in the form of an amicus brief than an attack." The arguments raised by Deaton and others are having an impact, as Jake acknowledges, and RCTs increasingly are testing rich behavioral hypotheses. The incentives of academic publication are also moving RCTs toward greater theoretical sophistication. Gone are the days when a randomized design was a novel enough identification strategy that it could propel a study to publication in a top economics journal.<br /><br />Considerations of theory aside, whether or not a particular result generalizes is itself a testable, empirical question. We cannot—and should not—test everything everywhere, but if a particular approach proves effective in multiple contexts, our confidence in its “generalizability” should increase accordingly. Replication studies can also test variations in the length or intensity of treatment, disentangle the impact of different components of a program, or test how a small-scale intervention performs as it is scaled up.<br /><br />If the goal is to achieve certainty that intervention X will achieve result Y in context Z, we will never achieve it, with RCTs or any other method. However, considering evidence from even one rigorous evaluation is a big improvement over flying blind. As we consider multiple evaluations, together with insights from theory and other empirical work, the picture becomes that much clearer.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">2. Institutional constraints</span><br />Jake’s main criticism is that economists conducting RCTs “have been accused of ignoring the institutional constraints against which their interventions would inevitably contend if scaled up.” He cites corrupt bureaucracies, weak institutions, a lack of (or perverse) performance incentives, and budgetary problems as barriers to successful replication of programs found to be effective. The underlying message seems to be that if the RCT movement wants to influence policy successfully, it cannot just publish research findings and hope for the best.<br /><br />I could not agree more with this last point, but the RCT community is much farther along on this front than Jake suggests. Both J-PAL and our sister organization, Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA), have policy staff dedicated to bringing research findings to bear on the often-messy world of policymaking. While our academic affiliates are involved with policy outreach, non-academic policy staff help extend the reach of their research findings. This process is never easy and not always successful, for all the reasons Jake mentions, but we have found that it is possible to improve policy even in very constrained environments.<br /><br />As an aside, Jake also suggests that governance in developing countries is not amenable to quantitative study. I would have thought the same before I started with J-PAL, but in fact, J-PAL affiliates currently have at least 42 <a href="http://www.povertyactionlab.org/search/apachesolr_search?filters=type%3Aevaluation%20sm_cck_field_themes%3A73">completed or ongoing evaluations</a> in political economy and governance, including many that address precisely the issue he raises of the incentives of government officials and service providers.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold;">3. Do we already know what works?</span><br />Finally, Jake entertains the idea that perhaps we already know what works, since “many of the most celebrated finds of the RCT movement are relative ‘no-brainers’.” I find this argument troubling for two reasons. First, we have been following our intuition about what works in development for decades, with not a lot to show for it. What we have seen is succession of fads, with decidedly mixed results in terms of reducing poverty. There was a time when infrastructure was the “no brainer,” later it was basic needs, still later the focus turned to sustainable development, and today infrastructure seems back in vogue. To suggest that we already know what to do invites just this kind of intellectual drift.<br /><br />Second, while it may be true that many RCTs report seemingly obvious findings, some of them surprise us—and we never know in advance which those will be. For example, a number of NGOs and opinion leaders have championed the idea that distributing sanitary products to adolescent girls will remove a barrier to female education. The underlying common-sense assumption is that menstruation causes many missed days of school. However, a <a href="http://www.povertyactionlab.org/publication/menstruation-sanitary-products-and-school-attendance-evidence-randomized-evaluation">randomized evaluation</a> of a program that distributed an easy-to-use sanitary product in Nepal found no significant effect on school attendance (although the girls used, and liked, the product). As always, we should avoid over-generalizing from one study, but at minimum these findings suggest that proponents of this approach should adjust their expectations about what it can deliver. In other cases, RCTs have contributed clear evidence to debates where both camps have common-sense arguments on their side, such as the <a href="http://www.povertyactionlab.org/publication/the-price-is-wrong">vexed issue</a> of whether, and how much, to charge poor people for basic health and education products and services. Finally, even if the qualitative findings of an RCT seem to confirm common sense, policymakers may still want to know how an intervention stacks up quantitatively against other interventions with the same goal, in terms of both raw impact and cost-effectiveness.<br /><br />RCTs are no more a panacea for development than anything that came before them. But as long as there is more ideology and wishful thinking in development policymaking than evidence, I believe that the continuing growth of the RCT movement is a welcome trend.<br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Shawn Powers is a Policy Manager at the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL). The opinions expressed here are his own.</span>14 Pointshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04159237609754068809noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-823573262921448979.post-61959278826868843802011-11-11T12:59:00.003-05:002011-11-11T13:10:34.412-05:00New Year's Irresolution: Medicare’s sustainable growth rate and physician reimbursementWes Joines, MPA<br /><br /><br />Unless Congress acts between now and the end of 2011, at least one group will not be experiencing a happy New Year: physicians who provide services to Medicare patients. Under current law, starting in 2012, reimbursement for Medicare-provided services will be reduced by an estimated 30%. Why is this happening? It is all related to policies enacted nearly 15 years ago in an earlier iteration of debt reduction efforts.<br /><br />The <a href="http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/PLAW-105publ33/content-detail.html"><span style="font-style: italic;">Balanced Budget Act of 1997</span></a> was signed into law on August 5, 1997 and was designed to balance the federal budget by 2002. Of its $160 billion in spending cuts during that time period, $112 billion was applicable to the Medicare program, which is the primary health coverage program for older and some disabled Americans. A key component of the cuts to Medicare included, for the first time, a budgetary restraint on Medicare’s total expenditures to maintain budget neutrality. Known as the sustainable growth rate (SGR), it is a major component of the current formula for determining annual updates to physician reimbursement. While Medicare payment rate increases since 1992 had been tied to trends in physician utilization (i.e. efficient use of medical tests and facilities by a doctor), in 1997, for the first time, the implementation of the SGR meant that Medicare reimbursement changes <a href="http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMhpr1004028">would be linked</a> to four factors: 1) changes in input costs, 2) changes in Medicare fee-for-service enrollment, 3) changes in the volume of physician services relative to growth in the national economy, and 4) changes in expenditures due to changes in law and/or regulation.<br /><br />The SGR resulted in annual increases to the Medicare fee schedule until 2002, when a 4.8% reduction took place. Since that time, rate reductions called for by the formula have been deferred, although Congress has not changed the underlying SGR formula or the cumulative spending targets. Because of vast increases in the volume and complexity of health care services for the Medicare population in recent years, especially when compared to the SGR designers’ projections, the formula specifies cuts in physician payments that become <a href="http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3166">more severe</a> with each passing year. In fact, at a cost of $19 billion, a <a href="http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMhpr1004028">last-minute</a> December 2010 vote delayed a scheduled 25% reduction in the SGR that was to take place in January 2011.<br /><br />So, here we are again, this time in late 2011, deciding whether or not reimbursement for Medicare providers will be cut. Even before the current debt reduction debate and increasing prevalence of political gridlock in Congress, policy movement regarding the SGR involved numerous short-term fixes. For example, from 2003 through 2010, Congress included provisions in <a href="http://aging.senate.gov/crs/medicare15.pdf">13 separate pieces</a> of legislation to forestall reimbursement cuts. As a long-term fix for the SGR – e.g. replacing it with a current fee freeze – would be extremely costly to the taxpayer (some estimates currently peg it around <a href="http://www.medpac.gov/documents/10142011_MedPAC_SGR_letter.pdf">$300 billion</a> over 10 years), short-term fixes have generally proved to be an easier bargain (as much as they have irritated physicians and their respective trade associations).<br /><br />At this point, anyone’s guess is as good as another’s regarding the level of reimbursement for Medicare services on January 1, 2012. Although the current political climate is not one that generally supports massive spending to doctors that would be required for a long-term fix, many believe that cuts of the magnitude prescribed by the SGR would not be conducive to ensuring beneficiary access to services. Therefore, another short-term fix might be in the works as a stop-gap measure. However, there is also a chance that the currently-convened deficit reduction “Super Committee” might address the SGR as part of its proceedings.<br /><br />If compromise is within reach, within or outside of the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction, it may be similar to a <a href="http://www.medpac.gov/documents/10142011_MedPAC_SGR_letter.pdf">plan</a> recently recommend by the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission (MedPAC), which ironically enough, was also established by the Balanced Budget Act of 1997 and serves as an independent advisor to Congress. MedPAC’s plan, which would cost $200 billion over 10 years (instead of the $300 billion of the fee freeze), would protect both primary care and specialty physicians from the deep cuts called for by SGR. Primary care physicians would see physician fees associated with Medicare services frozen for 10 years, while specialists would see smaller cuts (of 5.9% per year) over the first three years that would then remain frozen for the remaining seven years in the budget window.<br /><br />Granted, MedPAC’s suggestion is not a panacea, but it is a good start. At the very least, it should focus us on attempting to resolve this looming crisis.14 Pointshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04159237609754068809noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-823573262921448979.post-39394097579899287542011-11-11T12:49:00.002-05:002011-11-11T12:58:09.087-05:00Skip Over Low-Hanging Fruit to Reach the Millennium Development GoalsLeslie Lai, MPA<br /><br /><br /> In 2000, the UN established the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) to improve the social and economic conditions of the world’s poorest countries by 2015. Of the eight MDGs, two specifically target the reduction of child mortality and the improvement of maternal health. Despite increased aid in the past decade from foundations, bilateral donors, and multilateral organizations, several countries in Sub-Saharan Africa will fail to reach these two goals in the next four years.<br /><br />The main reason for this is the lack of an equity focus in the planning processes of national health ministries. For economic and political reasons, governments have focused on targeting “low hanging fruit,” or populations that are most easily reached, through the expansion of traditional delivery service mechanisms such as hospitals. While there has been significant progress in health outcomes due to increased international aid, improvements in national averages conceal widening disparities in poverty and worsening health outcomes for the most marginalized populations. Furthermore, the perceived difficulty and economic inefficiency in reaching the poorest hinders donors from targeting technical assistance to those who need the most help.<br /><br />A practical solution to this challenge is to show evidence that integrating an equity focus into health planning can actually be cost-effective. Organizations such as the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) has proven this with a bottleneck analysis budgeting software created with the World Bank to assess the marginal costs of scaling up coverage of proven high-impact interventions. The tool incorporates over 186,000 input variables including the building of new facilities, vaccine transport costs, training of community health workers, etc. It also measures the potential number of lives saved per US $1 million invested depending on the mix of health services delivered and to whom.<br /><br />Using health data from 68 developing countries, UNICEF used the software to show that each of these countries could not only provide essential health services to the most deprived in an economical fashion, but could also potentially achieve the health-related MDGs by 2015. Surprisingly, UNICEF’s analysis also showed that countries ignoring the hardest-to-reach would miss the MDG targets. So just what exactly does a country need to do to reach the MDGs and expand coverage to its hardest-to-reach beneficiaries?<br /><br />Ethiopia is a successful example of a country that has successfully incorporated the bottleneck analysis tool into its national health plan to expand coverage to its underserved. Ethiopia’s key intervention is the training and deployment of Health Extension Workers (HEWs), young women who provide immunizations and maternal health services to children and women in rural areas. Based on marginal budgeting calculations, Ethiopia could potentially save 68.1 children’s lives per US $1 million spent with the HEW program compared to only 52.9 lives saved without. To achieve this, donors and technical assistance would need to enhance the HEW program or implement similar types of interventions.<br /><br />Since Ethiopia has historically experienced serious health problems among women and children, it is an ideal model for Sub-Saharan African countries with similar issues. Unfortunately, political matters may obstruct successful implementation in other countries. And in the meantime, the clock is running out…14 Pointshttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04159237609754068809noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-823573262921448979.post-39077975944062504622011-10-27T22:52:00.003-04:002011-10-27T22:52:00.178-04:00Separating the Tree from the Forest: Tackling deforestation independently to make progress on climate changeJessica Duncan, MPA<br />
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In early 2007, there was a palpable sense of a growing global consensus on the need for a multilateral climate change agreement. US presidential candidates were discussing their plans for domestic legislation, many European nations had already enacted ambitious policies, and the Chinese government had declared pollution – carbon emissions included – as a top priority. However, the 2008 financial crash and the resulting credit crunch, falling gas prices, and a return to protectionism quickly wiped out both capital and political will for the climate change agenda. At the time, commentators said it would take a year for the economy to bounce back and climate change would again return to the docket. President Obama and others spoke of the opportunity presented by clean energy industries to foster, rather than limit, American economic growth.<br />
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Four years since that cautiously optimistic time, and few of the predictions have come true. Indeed, climate change has all has absolutely disappeared from Washington. While American politics on energy have often been fickle, European’s sudden silence on climate change is more surprising. Across the globe, it appears that multilateral environmental agreements couldn’t be further from political leaders’ priorities.<br />
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In this political and economic context, what is the most productive next step to foster international climate change consensus? If we assume that something should be done on climate change but realize carbon pricing simply will not be implemented in the current economic climate, what do we do?<br />
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<b>Way Ahead: Divide and Conquer </b><br />
The most influential forum for climate policy, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), should take areas of growing consensus and separate negotiations and policies on these issues from the broader UN international climate change process, e.g. deforestation and technology transfer policies. (This article will focus on the former.) While far from ideal, this pragmatic division of labor will enable the US and other major emitters to invest in components of the climate policy that do not threaten their domestic economies in such a rough economic time. They can work aggressively on these areas until their domestic politics and economies better align to allow stronger mitigation policies in the future.<br />
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With regard to deforestation policy, in recent rounds of UN climate talks there has been remarkable convergence of international opinion on its importance, including the launch of the United Nations’ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD) program to better coordinate UN efforts to combat climate change by providing incentives to decrease deforestation. However, these promising developments have been overshadowed by the lack of movement in other areas of climate change policy and by the ongoing turbulence of the global economy. Overall, leaders have been prevented from doing all they can in this area because of a larger stalemate around carbon pricing and binding emissions cuts. A division of the international negotiation process that tackles deforestation policy separately will capitalize on positive developments even when countries remain at different ends of the table on other issues.<br />
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<b>What can be done on deforestation alone?</b><br />
Deforestation accounts for an estimated 20% of global carbon emissions each year. Slowing emissions from the destruction of forests will help keep global emissions at sustainable levels even if there is delayed action on more contentious areas of mitigation. While it may take decades to stop reliance on fossil fuel, it is possible to slow or halt deforestation far sooner. Reforestation also presents a very cost-effective opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, with far greater returns on each dollar invested than most other mitigation options. In addition, deforestation should be separated from the broader climate agenda because it has potential to alter regional and international economic and political landscapes by giving developing countries, from Indonesia to Congo to Brazil, massive value in their forests. If these new carbon assets are managed correctly, so that current incentives are reversed and forests are more valuable left standing than cut down, carbon sinks – reservoirs that store carbon, removing it from the atmosphere – could become a tremendous resource for the populations of these developing nations. However, if they are poorly regulated, carbon sinks could feed corruption, giving governments leverage which could disrupt geopolitical relations and even potentially drive conflict. It is vital for the international community to establish sound deforestation policies now since it will be far harder to reform them down the line.<br />
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<b>Summary</b><br />
The UNFCCC should separate deforestation policy from a broader post-Kyoto agreement for the following reasons:<br />
<ul><li>Effective international regulation in these areas is essential to cut global greenhouse emissions at the scale and with the urgency dictated by science – it’s more important than ever to protect carbon sinks since we have been unable to cut carbon emissions.</li>
<li>Regulation of these areas will provide opportunities for developing nations to profit from the climate agenda rather than be burdened by it.</li>
<li>As deforestation policy helps emerging economies become more invested in the international climate agenda, these nations may become more willing and able to take on binding emissions reductions targets. </li>
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Success on reforestation will not only cut global emissions in the near-term, but it will also – perhaps even more importantly – feed back into, strengthen, and drive progress on a more comprehensive global environmental negotiation in the future.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-823573262921448979.post-10320265484287680412011-10-27T22:34:00.001-04:002011-10-27T22:34:00.184-04:00Chugga Chugga Moo Moo: Developing Cow PowerCarol Lu, MPA<br />
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While solar and wind power have become synonymous with renewable energy, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has made it a priority to support the commercialization of a much less glamorous source of energy – dairy biogas from digester systems. Biogas (bio-gas) is gas produced by the biological breakdown of organic matter in the absence of oxygen, and digester systems are industrial structures designed to capture that material. Located on the dairy farms themselves, digesters capture biogas from manure, transforming waste to energy. These systems benefit the environment by reducing water pollution from nutrient run-off. And, they represent a potential business opportunity. Even in this win-win situation, the current nascent digester industry is not economically sustainable: electricity sales to the wholesale market don’t justify capital costs. Entrepreneurs may make inroads to costs through “learning” on operations, but more is needed to push the industry toward profitability.<br />
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As a key environmental player with strong connections to local regulatory agencies and regulated entities, the EPA can help to increase digester project revenues in two ways:<br />
<ul><li><i>Reduce barriers to co-digestion</i>. Because restaurant grease has high energy potential, co-digestion of these wastes with manure would allow projects to generate double or triple the electricity at nearly the same costs. In addition, digester developers could charge restaurants a tipping fee to dispose of their grease. These additional revenue streams could make a project profitable. Unfortunately, co-digestion in areas like California is nearly impossible because of strict environmental permitting standards. The EPA should work with local agencies to develop a fast-tracked permitting exception for diary digester projects in states where co-digestion is not permitted.</li>
</ul><ul><li><i>Facilitate direct partnerships between large electricity end-users and digester projects</i>. By directly providing electricity to an end-user rather than selling electricity to the wholesale market, a project developer is able to obtain a higher price for its renewable energy. Higher prices mean higher revenues. As an agency that regulates both large industrial electricity users and small dairies, the EPA is in a unique position to match these parties together. Thus, the EPA should develop an internal process in which those that work with large electricity users in the air permitting office collaborate with those that work with dairies in the water and agriculture offices. With sufficient support from the top, this intra-agency working group has the potential to bridge this critical gap. </li>
</ul>With California’s cap-and-trade program rolling out in 2013, dairy digester projects across the United States may be able to supplement electricity revenues with compliance-offset revenues. Eight percent of emissions reductions by entities regulated under the cap may come from offsets, and livestock manure projects are one of the four approved offset project types. While there are many other factors to ensuring sustained deployment of dairy digester technology, increasing revenue potential is a vital first step.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1